{"F": {"ts_code": "002318.SZ", "name": "久立特材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "钢铁", "sw2": "特钢Ⅱ", "sw3": "特钢Ⅲ", "ind": "特钢Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20091211", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.78, "pe_ttm": 17.9887, "pb": 2.4082, "dv_ttm": 5.0416, "total_mv": 1932843.6842, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.2, 24.9, 25.3, 26.2, 27.6, 24.7], "rev_series": [49.6, 59.7, 65.4, 85.7, 109.2, 120.6], "np_series": [7.7, 7.9, 12.9, 14.9, 14.9, 15.1], "roe_series": [18.8, 16.0, 22.8, 22.1, 19.7, 18.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 98.4, "np_ttm": 10.7, "ocf_ttm": 17.1, "fcf_ttm": 9.7, "fcf_yield": 5.0, "ocf_yield": 8.9, "gm_median": 25.3, "gm_std": 1.1, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -3.9, "npm_median": 13.9, "roe_median": 19.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 27.5, "fix_assets": 36.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 2.41, "capex_dep": 2.0, "interest_debt": 4.6, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 37.7, "debt_mv": 2.4, "payout": 62.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 22.6, "np_cagr3": 5.4, "rev_yoy": -36.4, "np_yoy": -52.6, "np_vol": 23.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 72.0, "earn_yield": 5.6, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 16.8, "fwd_pe2": 13.8, "fwd_g1": 7.0, "fwd_g2": 21.0, "peg": 0.8, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 46.0], ["无缝管", 22.0], ["焊接管", 9.0], ["复合管", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 30.4, "ret_prev2_year": 23.0, "ret_ytd": -29.2, "ret_pivot": 22.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.0, "ret_60": -10.2, "ret_120": -38.0, "ret_250": -8.4, "mdd_250": -48.2, "vol_250": 39.2, "pos_52w": 57.3}, "S": {"duration": 36, "pricing": 51, "hard": 44, "bondness": 53}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 63%、股息率 5.0%、营收 3 年复合 22.6%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.4 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 28%,毛利率近 5 年中位 25.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.0%(经营现金流/市值 8.9%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.3%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 28%,资本开支/折旧 2.00 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 18.0 倍 粗算,约 72%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -8%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 57%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / -10% / -38%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「特钢Ⅱ」12 家中位:PE 15.6 / 股息率 3.2% / 毛利率 11.3% / 固定资产占比 37% / 分红率 50%。", "久立特材:PE 比行业中位高 2.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 14.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 9.9个百分点。"]}}