{"F": {"ts_code": "002317.SZ", "name": "众生药业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "中药Ⅱ", "sw3": "中药Ⅲ", "ind": "中药Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20091211", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 24.64, "pe_ttm": 105.0881, "pb": 5.2301, "dv_ttm": 0.8117, "total_mv": 2094228.5056, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [65.3, 66.8, 64.9, 58.6, 56.0, 56.1], "rev_series": [19.0, 24.3, 26.8, 26.1, 24.7, 25.2], "np_series": [-4.3, 2.8, 3.2, 2.6, -3.0, 2.8], "roe_series": [-11.2, 7.9, 9.0, 6.5, -7.2, 6.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 22.2, "np_ttm": 2.0, "ocf_ttm": 8.1, "fcf_ttm": 4.8, "fcf_yield": 2.3, "ocf_yield": 3.9, "gm_median": 58.6, "gm_std": 4.5, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -0.5, "npm_median": 10.6, "roe_median": 6.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.3, "fix_assets": 7.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 5.23, "capex_dep": 4.66, "interest_debt": 1.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 17.6, "debt_mv": 0.6, "payout": 61.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -1.9, "np_cagr3": -5.0, "rev_yoy": -23.0, "np_yoy": -40.7, "np_vol": 145.9, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.0, "consensus_n": 13, "fwd_pe": 73.3, "fwd_pe2": 61.1, "fwd_g1": 43.0, "fwd_g2": 20.0, "peg": 3.67, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["中成药销售", 18.0], ["中成药", 18.0], ["化学药销售", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 59.8, "ret_prev2_year": -23.9, "ret_ytd": 31.2, "ret_pivot": 135.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -13.8, "ret_60": 8.3, "ret_120": 37.5, "ret_250": 7.3, "mdd_250": -37.4, "vol_250": 56.8, "pos_52w": 74.0}, "S": {"duration": 93, "pricing": 69, "hard": 24, "bondness": 47}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 105.1 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 15%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(13 篇研报)前瞻 PE 73.3 倍,次年 61.1 倍,PEG 3.67。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 58.6%),硬资产占比 15%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.3%(经营现金流/市值 3.9%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 58.6%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.5 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 4.66 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 105.1 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 7%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 57%,现价在 52 周高点的 74%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -14% / 8% / 38%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「中药Ⅱ」68 家中位:PE 23.1 / 股息率 2.8% / 毛利率 57.5% / 固定资产占比 23% / 分红率 64%。", "众生药业:PE 比行业中位高 82.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 2.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.1个百分点。"]}}