{"F": {"ts_code": "002316.SZ", "name": "亚联发展", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "综合", "sw2": "综合Ⅱ", "sw3": "综合Ⅲ", "ind": "综合Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20091209", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.44, "pe_ttm": 4028.2407, "pb": 22.5748, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 174545.28, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.9, 19.3, 17.6, 8.5, 13.7, 12.6], "rev_series": [32.8, 19.6, 16.6, 6.0, 6.1, 5.9], "np_series": [-4.9, -2.9, -0.9, -0.2, 0.1, 0.1], "roe_series": [-101.4, -323.4, null, -34.1, 15.1, 8.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.3, "np_ttm": 0.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 1.7, "ocf_yield": 1.8, "gm_median": 13.7, "gm_std": 3.8, "gm_stab": 0.72, "gm_chg_2022": 2.7, "npm_median": -2.9, "roe_median": -12.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 3.5, "fix_assets": 0.2, "goodwill_ratio": 3.4, "pb_calc": 22.57, "capex_dep": 0.19, "interest_debt": 0.7, "debt_ebitda": 3.1, "debt_ratio": 84.3, "debt_mv": 3.9, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -29.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -19.2, "np_yoy": -92.8, "np_vol": 60.7, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100.0, "earn_yield": 0.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 41.0], ["专网通讯技术解决方案", 15.0], ["专网通信解决方案", 15.0], ["交通工程系统集成", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 45.5, "ret_prev2_year": -37.6, "ret_ytd": -6.1, "ret_pivot": 68.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.1, "ret_60": -2.4, "ret_120": -20.7, "ret_250": -32.6, "mdd_250": -44.9, "vol_250": 45.7, "pos_52w": 67.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 42, "hard": 6, "bondness": 29}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.0 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 4028 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 84%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 4%,毛利率近 5 年中位 13.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.7%(经营现金流/市值 1.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.7%,稳定度 72%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 4%,资本开支/折旧 0.19 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 4028.2 倍 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -33%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -2% / -21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「综合Ⅱ」20 家中位:PE 46.7 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 15.5% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 35%。", "亚联发展:PE 比行业中位高 3981.5倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.9个百分点。"]}}