{"F": {"ts_code": "002314.SZ", "name": "南山控股", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "房地产", "sw2": "房地产开发", "sw3": "住宅开发", "ind": "房地产开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20091203", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.24, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 0.9717, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 606543.28, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.4, 21.0, 19.3, 22.7, 20.3, 20.9], "rev_series": [112.3, 111.8, 121.5, 120.6, 84.0, 130.6], "np_series": [13.0, 9.8, 6.8, 1.5, -17.7, -19.7], "roe_series": [14.5, 10.2, 6.9, 1.4, -18.5, -25.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 103.4, "np_ttm": -27.0, "ocf_ttm": 48.1, "fcf_ttm": 35.0, "fcf_yield": 57.7, "ocf_yield": 79.3, "gm_median": 20.9, "gm_std": 1.1, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -9.1, "npm_median": 4.9, "roe_median": 1.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.6, "fix_assets": 113.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.97, "capex_dep": 1.58, "interest_debt": 274.5, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 77.3, "debt_mv": 452.5, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 2.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -47.1, "np_yoy": -797.9, "np_vol": 508.4, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 43.0], ["房地产业务", 16.0], ["仓储物流业务", 12.0], ["制造业务", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 19.7, "ret_prev2_year": -17.9, "ret_ytd": -21.4, "ret_pivot": 7.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.2, "ret_60": -2.6, "ret_120": -14.8, "ret_250": -25.6, "mdd_250": -41.9, "vol_250": 39.9, "pos_52w": 65.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 47, "hard": 31, "bondness": 21}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -27.0 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 77%,有息负债 274 亿,经营现金流/市值 79.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 20%,毛利率近 5 年中位 20.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 57.7%(经营现金流/市值 79.3%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 20.9%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 20%,资本开支/折旧 1.58 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -26%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / -3% / -15%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「房地产开发」83 家中位:PE 26.0 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 21.1% / 固定资产占比 2% / 分红率 36%。", "南山控股:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 17.6个百分点。"]}}