{"F": {"ts_code": "002311.SZ", "name": "海大集团", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "饲料", "sw3": "水产饲料", "ind": "饲料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20091127", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 44.62, "pe_ttm": 22.7128, "pb": 3.1121, "dv_ttm": 2.8988, "total_mv": 7387431.8268, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [11.7, 8.5, 9.3, 8.5, 11.3, 10.3], "rev_series": [603.2, 860.0, 1047.2, 1161.2, 1146.0, 1284.7], "np_series": [25.2, 16.0, 29.5, 27.4, 45.0, 42.8], "roe_series": [21.9, 11.2, 18.3, 14.6, 20.7, 17.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1338.8, "np_ttm": 32.5, "ocf_ttm": 71.4, "fcf_ttm": 37.3, "fcf_yield": 5.0, "ocf_yield": 9.7, "gm_median": 9.3, "gm_std": 1.1, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -2.4, "npm_median": 3.0, "roe_median": 17.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.9, "fix_assets": 176.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.7, "pb_calc": 3.11, "capex_dep": 1.77, "interest_debt": 66.0, "debt_ebitda": 1.0, "debt_ratio": 54.6, "debt_mv": 8.9, "payout": 40.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 7.1, "np_cagr3": 13.2, "rev_yoy": 9.2, "np_yoy": -39.0, "np_vol": 45.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 78.0, "earn_yield": 4.4, "consensus_n": 16, "fwd_pe": 17.1, "fwd_pe2": 12.4, "fwd_g1": 33.0, "fwd_g2": 38.0, "peg": 0.45, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["饲料销售", 29.0], ["饲料", 29.0], ["农产品销售", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 16.4, "ret_prev2_year": 11.0, "ret_ytd": -17.8, "ret_pivot": 37.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.8, "ret_60": 1.9, "ret_120": -19.5, "ret_250": -26.7, "mdd_250": -37.6, "vol_250": 30.5, "pos_52w": 67.6}, "S": {"duration": 43, "pricing": 41, "hard": 51, "bondness": 48}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 32%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 9.3%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.4 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 1.0 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 32%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 9.3%,稳定度 88%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.0%(经营现金流/市值 9.7%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 9.3%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 1.77 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 22.7 倍 粗算,约 78%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -27%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 30%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / 2% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「饲料」19 家中位:PE 44.7 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 9.9% / 固定资产占比 35% / 分红率 40%。", "海大集团:PE 比行业中位低 22.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.5个百分点。"]}}