{"F": {"ts_code": "002309.SZ", "name": "中利集团", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "线缆部件及其他", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20091127", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.99, "pe_ttm": 69.619, "pb": 4.5396, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 899291.9546, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [7.6, 6.8, 8.6, 13.6, 16.3, 11.2], "rev_series": [90.3, 103.8, 81.7, 40.5, 23.6, 23.4], "np_series": [-29.2, -41.9, -4.9, -15.0, -11.7, -0.6], "roe_series": [-41.0, -118.9, -39.8, -693.3, -272.5, -3.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 29.8, "np_ttm": 1.3, "ocf_ttm": -6.1, "fcf_ttm": -7.2, "fcf_yield": -8.0, "ocf_yield": -6.8, "gm_median": 11.2, "gm_std": 3.4, "gm_stab": 0.7, "gm_chg_2022": 1.0, "npm_median": -37.0, "roe_median": -118.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 21.5, "fix_assets": 10.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.54, "capex_dep": 1.14, "interest_debt": 0.9, "debt_ebitda": 5.4, "debt_ratio": 60.1, "debt_mv": 1.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -34.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 76.6, "np_yoy": 261.4, "np_vol": 113.8, "loss_years": 5, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["电力及通信电缆", 33.0], ["光伏组件及电池片", 25.0], ["船用电缆", 14.0], ["电缆料", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 38.9, "ret_prev2_year": -13.5, "ret_ytd": -11.8, "ret_pivot": 25.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.0, "ret_60": -5.4, "ret_120": -13.8, "ret_250": -8.3, "mdd_250": -53.9, "vol_250": 64.0, "pos_52w": 57.2}, "S": {"duration": 82, "pricing": 38, "hard": 34, "bondness": 35}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 1.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 5 年;PE 70 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 60%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 -6.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 22%,毛利率近 5 年中位 11.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -8.0%(经营现金流/市值 -6.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.2%,稳定度 70%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 22%,资本开支/折旧 1.14 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 69.6 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -8%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 64%,现价在 52 周高点的 57%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -5% / -14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "中利集团:PE 比行业中位高 26.1倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.6个百分点。"]}}