{"F": {"ts_code": "002304.SZ", "name": "洋河股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "白酒Ⅱ", "sw3": "白酒Ⅲ", "ind": "白酒Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20091106", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 39.59, "pe_ttm": 128.5014, "pb": 1.2641, "dv_ttm": 3.7131, "total_mv": 5964016.1509, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [72.3, 75.3, 74.6, 75.2, 73.2, 71.6], "rev_series": [211.0, 253.5, 301.0, 331.3, 288.8, 192.1], "np_series": [74.8, 75.1, 93.8, 100.2, 66.7, 22.1], "roe_series": [20.0, 18.5, 20.8, 20.1, 12.9, 4.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 149.6, "np_ttm": 4.6, "ocf_ttm": -10.4, "fcf_ttm": -15.9, "fcf_yield": -2.7, "ocf_yield": -1.8, "gm_median": 74.6, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": 2.3, "npm_median": 29.6, "roe_median": 18.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.3, "fix_assets": 74.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 1.26, "capex_dep": 0.81, "interest_debt": 2.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 15.6, "debt_mv": 0.4, "payout": 100.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -13.9, "np_cagr3": -38.3, "rev_yoy": -28.8, "np_yoy": -40.1, "np_vol": 32.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 20, "fwd_pe": 26.3, "fwd_pe2": 23.4, "fwd_g1": 388.0, "fwd_g2": 12.0, "peg": 2.19, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["白酒", 48.0], ["其他业务", 1.0], ["其他", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -23.4, "ret_prev2_year": -21.9, "ret_ytd": -33.2, "ret_pivot": -41.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.1, "ret_60": -5.5, "ret_120": -20.4, "ret_250": -45.6, "mdd_250": -48.4, "vol_250": 27.1, "pos_52w": 54.3}, "S": {"duration": 96, "pricing": 81, "hard": 21, "bondness": 78}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 100%、股息率 3.7%、营收 3 年复合 -13.9%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 74.6%),硬资产占比 13%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.7%(经营现金流/市值 -1.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 74.6%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.3 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 0.81 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 128.5 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -46%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 27%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -6% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「白酒Ⅱ」19 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 3.7% / 毛利率 74.5% / 固定资产占比 27% / 分红率 60%。", "洋河股份:PE 比行业中位高 102.4倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 13.8个百分点。"]}}