{"F": {"ts_code": "002303.SZ", "name": "美盈森", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "包装印刷", "sw3": "纸包装", "ind": "包装印刷", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20091103", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.21, "pe_ttm": 37.1582, "pb": 1.8079, "dv_ttm": 2.8023, "total_mv": 797819.6477, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.7, 22.9, 18.7, 25.2, 26.7, 25.9], "rev_series": [33.7, 36.1, 41.3, 35.1, 40.1, 39.7], "np_series": [1.9, 1.0, 1.3, 2.0, 2.8, 2.6], "roe_series": [3.9, 2.1, 2.8, 3.9, 5.9, 5.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 39.7, "np_ttm": 2.1, "ocf_ttm": 2.9, "fcf_ttm": 2.3, "fcf_yield": 2.9, "ocf_yield": 3.7, "gm_median": 25.2, "gm_std": 2.9, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -5.0, "npm_median": 5.7, "roe_median": 3.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 20.8, "fix_assets": 14.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.81, "capex_dep": 0.5, "interest_debt": 11.7, "debt_ebitda": 2.3, "debt_ratio": 36.2, "debt_mv": 14.7, "payout": 101.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -1.3, "np_cagr3": 24.7, "rev_yoy": -0.1, "np_yoy": -26.3, "np_vol": 36.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 87.0, "earn_yield": 2.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["轻型包装产品", 43.0], ["第三方采购产品", 24.0], ["第三方采购", 24.0], ["重型包装产品", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 19.6, "ret_prev2_year": 24.0, "ret_ytd": 31.9, "ret_pivot": 130.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.4, "ret_60": 73.7, "ret_120": 37.1, "ret_250": 18.3, "mdd_250": -36.0, "vol_250": 47.0, "pos_52w": 91.6}, "S": {"duration": 61, "pricing": 48, "hard": 33, "bondness": 79}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 37.2 倍、股息率 2.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 25.2%、固定资产占比 21%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 21%,毛利率近 5 年中位 25.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.9%(经营现金流/市值 3.7%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.2%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 21%,资本开支/折旧 0.50 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 37.2 倍 粗算,约 87%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 18%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 92%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / 74% / 37%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「包装印刷」46 家中位:PE 38.9 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 33% / 分红率 50%。", "美盈森:PE 比行业中位低 1.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 12.0个百分点。"]}}