{"F": {"ts_code": "002302.SZ", "name": "西部建设", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑材料", "sw2": "水泥", "sw3": "水泥制品", "ind": "水泥", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20091103", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.78, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 0.7775, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 603405.3554, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [11.5, 10.4, 10.5, 11.3, 7.6, 4.8], "rev_series": [234.2, 269.3, 248.6, 228.6, 203.5, 181.1], "np_series": [7.8, 8.4, 5.5, 6.4, -2.6, -7.3], "roe_series": [10.5, 9.9, 5.9, 6.6, -2.7, -8.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 162.9, "np_ttm": -8.4, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_yield": 0.4, "ocf_yield": 1.9, "gm_median": 10.4, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.77, "gm_chg_2022": -1.0, "npm_median": 2.9, "roe_median": 5.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 7.5, "fix_assets": 23.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.72, "capex_dep": 0.33, "interest_debt": 30.8, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 69.6, "debt_mv": 51.1, "payout": 23.5, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -10.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -20.1, "np_yoy": -116.2, "np_vol": 79.1, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["商品砼", 91.0], ["材料销售收入", 1.0], ["材料销售", 1.0], ["外销水泥", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -5.2, "ret_prev2_year": 3.4, "ret_ytd": -21.9, "ret_pivot": -9.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.6, "ret_60": -0.4, "ret_120": -26.3, "ret_250": -34.5, "mdd_250": -40.1, "vol_250": 31.3, "pos_52w": 66.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 39, "hard": 12, "bondness": 31}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -8.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 70%,有息负债 31 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.9%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 8%,毛利率近 5 年中位 10.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.4%(经营现金流/市值 1.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 10.4%,稳定度 77%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 0.33 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -34%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 31%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -0% / -26%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「水泥」21 家中位:PE 19.9 / 股息率 2.8% / 毛利率 17.5% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "西部建设:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 24.3个百分点。"]}}