{"F": {"ts_code": "002301.SZ", "name": "齐心集团", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "文娱用品", "sw3": "文化用品", "ind": "文娱用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20091021", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.99, "pe_ttm": 82.714, "pb": 1.8475, "dv_ttm": 1.3618, "total_mv": 578482.3121, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.7, 11.2, 10.1, 8.4, 8.6, 8.4], "rev_series": [80.1, 82.4, 86.3, 111.0, 114.0, 119.6], "np_series": [2.0, -5.6, 1.3, 0.8, 0.6, 0.8], "roe_series": [5.9, -17.7, 4.3, 2.5, 2.0, 2.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 120.0, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 4.7, "fcf_ttm": 4.4, "fcf_yield": 7.7, "ocf_yield": 8.0, "gm_median": 8.6, "gm_std": 1.1, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": -4.6, "npm_median": 0.6, "roe_median": 2.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 4.6, "fix_assets": 4.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.85, "capex_dep": 0.82, "interest_debt": 7.5, "debt_ebitda": 4.5, "debt_ratio": 65.0, "debt_mv": 12.9, "payout": 77.8, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 11.5, "np_cagr3": -14.0, "rev_yoy": 0.8, "np_yoy": -12.3, "np_vol": 170.7, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.2, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 36.7, "fwd_pe2": 30.3, "fwd_g1": 126.0, "fwd_g2": 21.0, "peg": 1.75, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["办公物资", 99.0], ["其他主营业务", 1.0], ["其他", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 10.2, "ret_prev2_year": 1.2, "ret_ytd": 4.6, "ret_pivot": 70.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 13.0, "ret_60": 8.6, "ret_120": 11.0, "ret_250": 11.1, "mdd_250": -24.7, "vol_250": 45.5, "pos_52w": 93.6}, "S": {"duration": 87, "pricing": 39, "hard": 7, "bondness": 57}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 82.7 倍,估值里约 94% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 5%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(5 篇研报)前瞻 PE 36.7 倍,次年 30.3 倍,PEG 1.75。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 5%,毛利率近 5 年中位 8.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.7%(经营现金流/市值 8.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 8.6%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 5%,资本开支/折旧 0.82 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 82.7 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 11%,最大回撤 -25%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 94%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 13% / 9% / 11%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;已在高位,贴现率冲击时跌幅按 PE 放大。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「文娱用品」20 家中位:PE 47.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.8% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 40%。", "齐心集团:PE 比行业中位高 35.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 15.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 17.9个百分点。"]}}