{"F": {"ts_code": "002300.SZ", "name": "太阳电缆", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "线缆部件及其他", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20091021", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.03, "pe_ttm": 138.2455, "pb": 3.0521, "dv_ttm": 0.8717, "total_mv": 580033.9611, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [6.7, 4.5, 4.6, 4.6, 3.5, 4.0], "rev_series": [79.4, 112.2, 131.0, 135.4, 137.2, 120.3], "np_series": [1.9, 1.6, 2.1, 1.8, 0.9, 0.8], "roe_series": [12.3, 9.7, 12.3, 9.6, 4.8, 4.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 129.5, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 2.7, "fcf_ttm": 1.3, "fcf_yield": 2.2, "ocf_yield": 4.7, "gm_median": 4.5, "gm_std": 0.4, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -2.1, "npm_median": 1.3, "roe_median": 9.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.3, "fix_assets": 20.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.05, "capex_dep": 0.98, "interest_debt": 28.6, "debt_ebitda": 11.7, "debt_ratio": 65.5, "debt_mv": 49.4, "payout": 65.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -2.8, "np_cagr3": -27.0, "rev_yoy": 15.9, "np_yoy": -68.8, "np_vol": 26.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 38.0], ["铜加工产品", 23.0], ["铜产品", 23.0], ["特种电缆", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 76.9, "ret_prev2_year": -36.8, "ret_ytd": -12.0, "ret_pivot": 85.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.8, "ret_60": 8.2, "ret_120": -22.5, "ret_250": 22.8, "mdd_250": -54.5, "vol_250": 63.5, "pos_52w": 62.4}, "S": {"duration": 97, "pricing": 40, "hard": 50, "bondness": 63}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 31%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 4.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.1 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 11.7 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 31%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 4.5%,稳定度 90%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.2%(经营现金流/市值 4.7%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 4.5%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 31%,资本开支/折旧 0.98 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 138.2 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 23%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 64%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 12% / 8% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "太阳电缆:PE 比行业中位高 94.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 19.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 16.4个百分点。"]}}