{"F": {"ts_code": "002298.SZ", "name": "中电鑫龙", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "垂直应用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20090929", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.62, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.4153, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 637975.5958, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [39.2, 38.0, 25.4, 28.9, 21.5, 23.3], "rev_series": [27.7, 27.7, 24.2, 22.4, 19.5, 18.0], "np_series": [3.0, 2.1, -8.6, -5.9, -15.5, -4.2], "roe_series": [6.8, 4.3, -18.7, -15.1, -55.2, -22.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 16.4, "np_ttm": -4.0, "ocf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_yield": -0.2, "ocf_yield": -0.1, "gm_median": 25.4, "gm_std": 5.8, "gm_stab": 0.77, "gm_chg_2022": -13.8, "npm_median": -27.5, "roe_median": -18.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 5.3, "fix_assets": 2.1, "goodwill_ratio": 8.4, "pb_calc": 3.42, "capex_dep": 0.12, "interest_debt": 5.8, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 50.4, "debt_mv": 9.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -9.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -15.9, "np_yoy": 135.3, "np_vol": 213.6, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["智能输配电设备及元器件、智慧新能源", 32.0], ["智能输配电设备、新能源、元器件、自动化及电力设计", 32.0], ["自主可控智慧城市解决方案及运营服务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 96.2, "ret_prev2_year": -7.6, "ret_ytd": -17.4, "ret_pivot": 112.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.5, "ret_60": 9.3, "ret_120": -27.9, "ret_250": -20.6, "mdd_250": -52.5, "vol_250": 59.8, "pos_52w": 61.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 43, "hard": 8, "bondness": 23}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -4.0 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 50%,有息负债 6 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 5%,毛利率近 5 年中位 25.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.2%(经营现金流/市值 -0.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.4%,稳定度 77%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -13.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 5%,资本开支/折旧 0.12 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -21%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 60%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 9% / -28%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "中电鑫龙:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 23.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.5个百分点。"]}}