{"F": {"ts_code": "002295.SZ", "name": "精艺股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "工业金属", "sw3": "铜", "ind": "工业金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20090929", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.73, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.8821, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 243849.368, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [3.1, 2.6, 4.4, 4.3, 3.4, 2.4], "rev_series": [54.3, 67.2, 26.5, 27.1, 37.5, 46.5], "np_series": [0.4, 0.6, 0.3, 0.2, 0.3, -0.5], "roe_series": [3.6, 4.7, 2.2, 1.8, 2.1, -3.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 50.5, "np_ttm": -0.6, "ocf_ttm": -1.4, "fcf_ttm": -1.8, "fcf_yield": -7.2, "ocf_yield": -5.7, "gm_median": 3.4, "gm_std": 0.8, "gm_stab": 0.76, "gm_chg_2022": 1.3, "npm_median": 0.9, "roe_median": 2.1, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 11.5, "fix_assets": 2.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.88, "capex_dep": 1.15, "interest_debt": 7.5, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 43.5, "debt_mv": 30.7, "payout": 42.5, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 20.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 16.8, "np_yoy": -63.6, "np_vol": 116.8, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["铜管加工产品", 40.0], ["铜杆加工产品", 9.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 108.3, "ret_prev2_year": -20.9, "ret_ytd": -27.0, "ret_pivot": 93.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 12.0, "ret_60": 2.4, "ret_120": -15.5, "ret_250": -11.4, "mdd_250": -54.2, "vol_250": 51.3, "pos_52w": 60.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 70, "hard": 18, "bondness": 18}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.6 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 44%,有息负债 8 亿,经营现金流/市值 -5.7%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 3.4%),硬资产占比 12%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -7.2%(经营现金流/市值 -5.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 3.4%,稳定度 76%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 1.15 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -11%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 12% / 2% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工业金属」60 家中位:PE 20.5 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 10.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "精艺股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 16.0个百分点。"]}}