{"F": {"ts_code": "002292.SZ", "name": "奥飞娱乐", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "影视院线", "sw3": "影视动漫制作", "ind": "影视院线", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20090910", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.48, "pe_ttm": 59.9779, "pb": 4.1366, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1253937.3456, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [31.3, 26.3, 31.0, 37.7, 42.1, 43.5], "rev_series": [23.7, 26.4, 26.6, 27.4, 27.2, 24.7], "np_series": [-4.5, -4.2, -1.7, 0.9, -2.9, 0.7], "roe_series": [-12.4, -12.9, -5.3, 2.8, -9.0, 2.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 26.1, "np_ttm": 2.1, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_yield": 0.6, "ocf_yield": 0.9, "gm_median": 37.7, "gm_std": 6.6, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": -0.3, "npm_median": -6.6, "roe_median": -5.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 5.4, "fix_assets": 2.3, "goodwill_ratio": 28.3, "pb_calc": 4.14, "capex_dep": 1.33, "interest_debt": 6.6, "debt_ebitda": 1.9, "debt_ratio": 29.3, "debt_mv": 5.3, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -2.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 11.1, "np_yoy": 370.7, "np_vol": 203.1, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.7, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 65.2, "fwd_pe2": 56.5, "fwd_g1": -8.0, "fwd_g2": 15.0, "peg": 4.35, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["婴童用品", 26.0], ["玩具销售", 19.0], ["影视类", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 2.3, "ret_prev2_year": -1.1, "ret_ytd": -4.2, "ret_pivot": 58.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.0, "ret_60": 25.8, "ret_120": 1.2, "ret_250": -16.0, "mdd_250": -41.6, "vol_250": 42.7, "pos_52w": 77.9}, "S": {"duration": 78, "pricing": 55, "hard": 9, "bondness": 26}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "商誉占比高"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 2.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 60 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 29%,有息负债 7 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.9%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 5%,毛利率近 5 年中位 37.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.6%(经营现金流/市值 0.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 37.7%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.3 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 5%,资本开支/折旧 1.33 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 60.0 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -16%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 26% / 1%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「影视院线」19 家中位:PE 84.8 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 22.8% / 固定资产占比 6% / 分红率 40%。", "奥飞娱乐:PE 比行业中位低 24.8倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 14.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.0个百分点。"]}}