{"F": {"ts_code": "002290.SZ", "name": "禾盛新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "家用电器", "sw2": "家电零部件Ⅱ", "sw3": "家电零部件Ⅲ", "ind": "家电零部件Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20090903", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 61.86, "pe_ttm": 75.7629, "pb": 14.5871, "dv_ttm": 0.3395, "total_mv": 1534822.6878, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.5, 11.9, 11.3, 10.8, 10.5, 14.9], "rev_series": [18.2, 22.7, 21.3, 23.4, 25.3, 25.5], "np_series": [0.6, 0.8, 0.7, 0.8, 1.0, 1.6], "roe_series": [13.3, 16.9, 11.5, 12.5, 13.0, 18.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 25.9, "np_ttm": 2.0, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_yield": 0.7, "ocf_yield": 0.7, "gm_median": 11.3, "gm_std": 1.6, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -2.2, "npm_median": 3.6, "roe_median": 13.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.1, "fix_assets": 1.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 14.59, "capex_dep": 0.18, "interest_debt": 2.4, "debt_ebitda": 1.0, "debt_ratio": 49.9, "debt_mv": 1.6, "payout": 31.8, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 6.2, "np_cagr3": 35.3, "rev_yoy": 2.7, "np_yoy": 40.4, "np_vol": 29.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.3, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 65.6, "fwd_pe2": 45.1, "fwd_g1": 15.0, "fwd_g2": 46.0, "peg": 1.43, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["家电用复合材料", 98.0], ["其他业务", 1.0], ["系统集成业务", 0.0], ["人工智能及系统集成板块", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 169.3, "ret_prev2_year": 32.0, "ret_ytd": 36.0, "ret_pivot": 485.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.4, "ret_60": -20.8, "ret_120": -1.9, "ret_250": 76.1, "mdd_250": -52.8, "vol_250": 65.9, "pos_52w": 59.8}, "S": {"duration": 85, "pricing": 42, "hard": 15, "bondness": 30}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 75.8 倍,估值里约 93% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 9%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(4 篇研报)前瞻 PE 65.6 倍,次年 45.1 倍,PEG 1.43。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 9%,毛利率近 5 年中位 11.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.7%(经营现金流/市值 0.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.3%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 0.18 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 75.8 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 76%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 66%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -21% / -2%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家电零部件Ⅱ」34 家中位:PE 50.3 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 18.8% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 39%。", "禾盛新材:PE 比行业中位高 25.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 11.5个百分点。"]}}