{"F": {"ts_code": "002289.SZ", "name": "宇顺电子", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "光学光电子", "sw3": "面板", "ind": "光学光电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20090903", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 35.66, "pe_ttm": 36.9728, "pb": 20.1288, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 999384.6942, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [11.0, 14.0, 9.4, 13.9, 21.2, 27.0], "rev_series": [1.4, 1.8, 1.4, 1.6, 2.2, 3.3], "np_series": [-0.3, -0.3, -0.3, 0.0, -0.2, -0.1], "roe_series": [-10.0, -9.1, -9.8, 0.4, -7.3, -6.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.4, "np_ttm": 2.7, "ocf_ttm": 3.0, "fcf_ttm": 2.5, "fcf_yield": 2.5, "ocf_yield": 3.0, "gm_median": 14.0, "gm_std": 6.2, "gm_stab": 0.55, "gm_chg_2022": -1.6, "npm_median": -6.5, "roe_median": -7.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 39.0, "fix_assets": 20.8, "goodwill_ratio": 38.1, "pb_calc": 20.13, "capex_dep": 0.67, "interest_debt": 3.4, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 90.3, "debt_mv": 3.4, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 34.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 306.8, "np_yoy": 6380.8, "np_vol": 783.8, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 86.0, "earn_yield": 2.7, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 22.3, "fwd_pe2": 16.7, "fwd_g1": 66.0, "fwd_g2": 34.0, "peg": 0.66, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["软件与信息技术服务", 29.0], ["IDC收入", 29.0], ["电气设备", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 719.4, "ret_prev2_year": -38.4, "ret_ytd": 22.2, "ret_pivot": 1042.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.6, "ret_60": -10.6, "ret_120": 31.1, "ret_250": 25.0, "mdd_250": -42.5, "vol_250": 58.1, "pos_52w": 72.0}, "S": {"duration": 60, "pricing": 33, "hard": 62, "bondness": 4}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["成长兑现", "亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "商誉占比高", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 39%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 14.0%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.6 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 1.2 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 39%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 14.0%,稳定度 55%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.5%(经营现金流/市值 3.0%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.0%,稳定度 55%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 39%,资本开支/折旧 0.67 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 37.0 倍 粗算,约 86%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 25%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 58%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / -11% / 31%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光学光电子」95 家中位:PE 61.6 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 19.3% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 43%。", "宇顺电子:PE 比行业中位低 24.6倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.6个百分点。"]}}