{"F": {"ts_code": "002287.SZ", "name": "奇正藏药", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "中药Ⅱ", "sw3": "中药Ⅲ", "ind": "中药Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20090828", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.9, "pe_ttm": 17.2157, "pb": 2.2333, "dv_ttm": 3.1429, "total_mv": 1138515.218, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [86.0, 85.0, 84.1, 84.2, 82.1, 83.1], "rev_series": [14.8, 17.7, 20.4, 20.5, 23.4, 24.2], "np_series": [4.1, 7.2, 4.7, 5.8, 5.8, 6.5], "roe_series": [16.7, 24.7, 14.5, 16.5, 15.0, 14.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 22.2, "np_ttm": 6.6, "ocf_ttm": 4.8, "fcf_ttm": 3.2, "fcf_yield": 2.8, "ocf_yield": 4.2, "gm_median": 84.1, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.99, "gm_chg_2022": -1.8, "npm_median": 26.8, "roe_median": 15.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 25.4, "fix_assets": 17.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.23, "capex_dep": 1.45, "interest_debt": 9.2, "debt_ebitda": 1.1, "debt_ratio": 23.5, "debt_mv": 8.1, "payout": 52.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 5.7, "np_cagr3": 11.1, "rev_yoy": -16.8, "np_yoy": 3.6, "np_vol": 36.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 71.0, "earn_yield": 5.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["贴膏剂", 65.0], ["其它剂型", 12.0], ["其他剂型", 12.0], ["软膏剂", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 15.3, "ret_prev2_year": -2.9, "ret_ytd": -14.4, "ret_pivot": 15.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.1, "ret_60": 1.0, "ret_120": -16.7, "ret_250": -30.6, "mdd_250": -33.5, "vol_250": 23.7, "pos_52w": 71.0}, "S": {"duration": 35, "pricing": 83, "hard": 41, "bondness": 55}, "label": "定价权·品牌", "tags": ["现金流红利"], "text": {"像什么": ["没有硬资产(固定资产占比 25%)但有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 84.1%,稳定度 99%、ROE 近 5 年中位 15.0%。", "自由现金流/市值 2.8%,分红率 53%,分子跟得上通胀。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 84.1%),硬资产占比 25%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "分子跟得上通胀、久期不长,加息期抗跌;放水期弹性不如科技。属船票一侧的'非债券'部分。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.8%(经营现金流/市值 4.2%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 84.1%,稳定度 99%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 25%,资本开支/折旧 1.45 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 17.2 倍 粗算,约 71%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -31%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 24%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / 1% / -17%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「中药Ⅱ」68 家中位:PE 23.1 / 股息率 2.8% / 毛利率 57.5% / 固定资产占比 23% / 分红率 64%。", "奇正藏药:PE 比行业中位低 5.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 26.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.0个百分点。"]}}