{"F": {"ts_code": "002283.SZ", "name": "天润工业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "底盘与发动机系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20090821", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.17, "pe_ttm": 21.0982, "pb": 1.5204, "dv_ttm": 3.2485, "total_mv": 930936.4507, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.9, 24.1, 21.2, 24.9, 22.2, 22.8], "rev_series": [44.3, 47.2, 31.4, 40.1, 36.2, 40.7], "np_series": [5.1, 5.4, 2.0, 3.9, 3.3, 3.7], "roe_series": [10.6, 10.3, 3.6, 6.7, 5.5, 6.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 47.1, "np_ttm": 4.4, "ocf_ttm": 5.6, "fcf_ttm": 3.1, "fcf_yield": 3.3, "ocf_yield": 6.0, "gm_median": 22.8, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -3.7, "npm_median": 9.1, "roe_median": 6.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 34.2, "fix_assets": 30.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.6, "pb_calc": 1.52, "capex_dep": 0.67, "interest_debt": 4.8, "debt_ebitda": 0.6, "debt_ratio": 30.4, "debt_mv": 5.1, "payout": 69.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 9.1, "np_cagr3": 21.8, "rev_yoy": 32.9, "np_yoy": 37.3, "np_vol": 50.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 76.0, "earn_yield": 4.7, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 19.1, "fwd_pe2": 15.4, "fwd_g1": 10.0, "fwd_g2": 24.0, "peg": 0.8, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["发动机及船级曲轴", 27.0], ["连杆", 12.0], ["曲轴毛坯及铸锻件", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 24.1, "ret_prev2_year": -5.8, "ret_ytd": 35.7, "ret_pivot": 130.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.8, "ret_60": -10.5, "ret_120": -8.8, "ret_250": 19.1, "mdd_250": -42.7, "vol_250": 53.4, "pos_52w": 64.6}, "S": {"duration": 41, "pricing": 49, "hard": 55, "bondness": 56}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["现金流红利"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 37%,PE TTM 21.1 倍 但前瞻 PE 19.1 倍,PEG 0.80。", "自由现金流 3.1 亿(正),次年预期增速 24%(9 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 34%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 22.8%,稳定度 94%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.3%(经营现金流/市值 6.0%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.8%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 34%,资本开支/折旧 0.67 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 21.1 倍 粗算,约 76%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 19%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / -10% / -9%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "天润工业:PE 比行业中位低 9.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.7个百分点。"]}}