{"F": {"ts_code": "002281.SZ", "name": "光迅科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "通信", "sw2": "通信设备", "sw3": "通信网络设备及器件", "ind": "通信设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20090821", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 167.7, "pe_ttm": 120.0818, "pb": 9.6074, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 13883025.0133, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.0, 24.2, 23.6, 22.6, 22.5, 23.4], "rev_series": [60.5, 64.9, 69.1, 60.6, 82.7, 119.3], "np_series": [4.9, 5.7, 6.1, 6.2, 6.6, 9.5], "roe_series": [10.2, 10.7, 10.4, 8.5, 7.5, 9.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 133.0, "np_ttm": 11.6, "ocf_ttm": 5.0, "fcf_ttm": -6.0, "fcf_yield": -0.4, "ocf_yield": 0.4, "gm_median": 23.4, "gm_std": 0.6, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": 0.6, "npm_median": 8.7, "roe_median": 9.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.3, "fix_assets": 30.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 9.61, "capex_dep": 2.97, "interest_debt": 2.9, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 37.0, "debt_mv": 0.2, "payout": 29.8, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 19.9, "np_cagr3": 15.9, "rev_yoy": 26.1, "np_yoy": 56.3, "np_vol": 14.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 11, "fwd_pe": 83.8, "fwd_pe2": 44.0, "fwd_g1": 43.0, "fwd_g2": 90.0, "peg": 0.93, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["数据与接入", 39.0], ["接入和数据", 39.0], ["传输", 21.0], ["其他主营业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 34.8, "ret_prev2_year": 85.4, "ret_ytd": 139.7, "ret_pivot": 530.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -13.1, "ret_60": -18.4, "ret_120": 88.6, "ret_250": 169.0, "mdd_250": -44.8, "vol_250": 73.5, "pos_52w": 60.7}, "S": {"duration": 95, "pricing": 54, "hard": 21, "bondness": 11}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 120.1 倍,估值里约 96% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 13%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(11 篇研报)前瞻 PE 83.8 倍,次年 44.0 倍,PEG 0.93。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 13%,毛利率近 5 年中位 23.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.4%(经营现金流/市值 0.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.4%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 2.97 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 120.1 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 169%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 74%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -13% / -18% / 89%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通信设备」89 家中位:PE 84.6 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 29.1% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 41%。", "光迅科技:PE 比行业中位高 35.5倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点。"]}}