{"F": {"ts_code": "002279.SZ", "name": "久其软件", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "横向通用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20090811", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.14, "pe_ttm": 64.6434, "pb": 4.1836, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 615615.7266, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.9, 31.3, 30.5, 28.5, 24.2, 40.9], "rev_series": [28.2, 27.1, 29.0, 34.1, 40.4, 25.9], "np_series": [0.7, -1.3, 0.5, -1.4, -1.6, 0.4], "roe_series": [6.5, -13.4, 3.9, -8.4, -10.2, 3.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 23.4, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": 2.3, "fcf_ttm": 1.9, "fcf_yield": 3.1, "ocf_yield": 3.7, "gm_median": 30.5, "gm_std": 5.5, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": 4.7, "npm_median": -3.8, "roe_median": -8.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.0, "fix_assets": 2.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.18, "capex_dep": 2.11, "interest_debt": 0.7, "debt_ebitda": 0.5, "debt_ratio": 36.0, "debt_mv": 1.2, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -3.7, "np_cagr3": -4.6, "rev_yoy": -28.8, "np_yoy": 67.0, "np_vol": 211.9, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 42.0], ["智慧营销", 16.0], ["媒体端智能营销平台", 16.0], ["数据智能", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 27.4, "ret_prev2_year": -3.7, "ret_ytd": -10.6, "ret_pivot": 35.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.5, "ret_60": 5.3, "ret_120": -18.6, "ret_250": -4.5, "mdd_250": -49.4, "vol_250": 51.3, "pos_52w": 66.0}, "S": {"duration": 80, "pricing": 55, "hard": 18, "bondness": 22}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 1.0 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 65 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 36%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 3.7%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 11%,毛利率近 5 年中位 30.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.1%(经营现金流/市值 3.7%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 30.5%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.7 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 2.11 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 64.6 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -4%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 5% / -19%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "久其软件:PE 比行业中位低 18.1倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 18.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.2个百分点。"]}}