{"F": {"ts_code": "002278.SZ", "name": "神开股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "能源及重型设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20090811", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.34, "pe_ttm": 93.6956, "pb": 2.3056, "dv_ttm": 0.7194, "total_mv": 324107.3286, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.7, 34.4, 30.9, 32.7, 35.4, 37.7], "rev_series": [7.3, 7.8, 6.0, 7.4, 7.3, 8.7], "np_series": [0.3, 0.4, -0.3, 0.2, 0.3, 0.6], "roe_series": [2.5, 3.8, -2.6, 2.3, 2.7, 4.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.2, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_yield": 1.5, "ocf_yield": 1.7, "gm_median": 34.4, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -4.8, "npm_median": 5.6, "roe_median": 2.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.5, "fix_assets": 2.9, "goodwill_ratio": 6.0, "pb_calc": 2.31, "capex_dep": 0.12, "interest_debt": 1.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.8, "debt_ratio": 26.7, "debt_mv": 3.0, "payout": 59.4, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 13.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -12.0, "np_yoy": -60.3, "np_vol": 115.2, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["石油钻采设备", 28.0], ["测井仪器及服务", 23.0], ["录井和随钻设备及服务", 22.0], ["录井及随钻设备及服务", 22.0]], "ret_prev_year": 142.1, "ret_prev2_year": -8.6, "ret_ytd": -34.0, "ret_pivot": 100.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.8, "ret_60": -0.7, "ret_120": -33.0, "ret_250": -24.3, "mdd_250": -54.6, "vol_250": 53.7, "pos_52w": 52.7}, "S": {"duration": 90, "pricing": 54, "hard": 22, "bondness": 34}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 93.7 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 14%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 34.4%),硬资产占比 14%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.5%(经营现金流/市值 1.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 34.4%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 0.12 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 93.7 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -24%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 53%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / -1% / -33%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "神开股份:PE 比行业中位高 51.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.5个百分点。"]}}