{"F": {"ts_code": "002275.SZ", "name": "桂林三金", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "中药Ⅱ", "sw3": "中药Ⅲ", "ind": "中药Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20090710", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.36, "pe_ttm": 17.8448, "pb": 2.2248, "dv_ttm": 4.0453, "total_mv": 726234.7896, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [71.3, 74.3, 71.0, 73.0, 73.4, 76.0], "rev_series": [15.7, 17.4, 19.6, 21.7, 21.9, 20.5], "np_series": [2.8, 3.4, 3.3, 4.2, 5.2, 4.3], "roe_series": [9.6, 11.9, 11.7, 15.0, 17.9, 14.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 20.2, "np_ttm": 4.1, "ocf_ttm": 5.5, "fcf_ttm": 4.7, "fcf_yield": 6.4, "ocf_yield": 7.6, "gm_median": 73.4, "gm_std": 1.7, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": -0.4, "npm_median": 19.7, "roe_median": 14.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 26.5, "fix_assets": 10.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 2.22, "capex_dep": 0.75, "interest_debt": 3.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.5, "debt_ratio": 19.3, "debt_mv": 4.2, "payout": 67.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 1.4, "np_cagr3": 9.5, "rev_yoy": -3.0, "np_yoy": -9.1, "np_vol": 18.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 72.0, "earn_yield": 5.6, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 15.8, "fwd_pe2": 14.4, "fwd_g1": 13.0, "fwd_g2": 10.0, "peg": 1.58, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["工业收入", 48.0], ["商品生产", 48.0], ["商品流通(商业)", 1.0], ["商品流通", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -3.1, "ret_prev2_year": 8.8, "ret_ytd": -10.4, "ret_pivot": 1.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.5, "ret_60": -2.7, "ret_120": -9.7, "ret_250": -17.9, "mdd_250": -20.1, "vol_250": 20.9, "pos_52w": 81.8}, "S": {"duration": 36, "pricing": 78, "hard": 42, "bondness": 68}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 68%、股息率 4.0%、营收 3 年复合 1.4%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.5 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 73.4%),硬资产占比 26%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.4%(经营现金流/市值 7.6%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 73.4%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.4 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 26%,资本开支/折旧 0.75 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 17.8 倍 粗算,约 72%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -18%,最大回撤 -20%,年化波动 21%,现价在 52 周高点的 82%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -3% / -10%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「中药Ⅱ」68 家中位:PE 23.1 / 股息率 2.8% / 毛利率 57.5% / 固定资产占比 23% / 分红率 64%。", "桂林三金:PE 比行业中位低 5.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 15.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.1个百分点。"]}}