{"F": {"ts_code": "002274.SZ", "name": "华昌化工", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学原料", "sw3": "煤化工", "ind": "化学原料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20080925", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.12, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.1087, "dv_ttm": 1.634, "total_mv": 582847.1352, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [9.8, 27.3, 17.9, 17.4, 13.9, 4.5], "rev_series": [61.0, 94.1, 90.4, 82.1, 79.3, 65.1], "np_series": [1.8, 16.3, 8.7, 7.3, 5.2, -2.0], "roe_series": [6.6, 45.7, 18.7, 13.9, 9.3, -3.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 73.0, "np_ttm": -0.9, "ocf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_yield": -0.4, "ocf_yield": 2.0, "gm_median": 17.4, "gm_std": 7.4, "gm_stab": 0.58, "gm_chg_2022": 8.1, "npm_median": 8.5, "roe_median": 13.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 56.7, "fix_assets": 43.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.11, "capex_dep": 0.31, "interest_debt": 4.6, "debt_ebitda": 0.9, "debt_ratio": 30.6, "debt_mv": 7.9, "payout": 47.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -10.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 24.8, "np_yoy": 1026.9, "np_vol": 343.5, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["多元醇", 36.0], ["肥料系列产品", 22.0], ["肥料系列", 22.0], ["纯碱", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": -24.7, "ret_prev2_year": 7.6, "ret_ytd": 10.3, "ret_pivot": -5.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.3, "ret_60": 17.5, "ret_120": -13.7, "ret_250": -9.2, "mdd_250": -34.9, "vol_250": 37.8, "pos_52w": 86.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 40, "hard": 91, "bondness": 49}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 57%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 17.4%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 8.1 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 0.9 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 57%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 17.4%,稳定度 58%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.4%(经营现金流/市值 2.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.4%,稳定度 58%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 8.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 57%,资本开支/折旧 0.31 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -9%,最大回撤 -35%,年化波动 38%,现价在 52 周高点的 86%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / 18% / -14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学原料」59 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 16.8% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 40%。", "华昌化工:PE ;股息率 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 9.3个百分点。"]}}