{"F": {"ts_code": "002273.SZ", "name": "水晶光电", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "光学光电子", "sw3": "光学元件", "ind": "光学光电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20080919", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 24.89, "pe_ttm": 28.9384, "pb": 3.3913, "dv_ttm": 1.2008, "total_mv": 3461283.5981, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.3, 23.8, 26.9, 27.8, 31.1, 31.3], "rev_series": [32.2, 38.1, 43.8, 50.8, 62.8, 69.3], "np_series": [4.4, 4.4, 5.8, 6.0, 10.3, 11.7], "roe_series": [8.7, 6.5, 7.1, 7.2, 11.7, 12.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 73.9, "np_ttm": 12.0, "ocf_ttm": 15.7, "fcf_ttm": 3.5, "fcf_yield": 1.0, "ocf_yield": 4.5, "gm_median": 27.8, "gm_std": 2.8, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -0.4, "npm_median": 13.6, "roe_median": 7.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 47.8, "fix_assets": 66.5, "goodwill_ratio": 2.1, "pb_calc": 3.39, "capex_dep": 2.23, "interest_debt": 6.8, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 24.2, "debt_mv": 2.0, "payout": 40.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 16.6, "np_cagr3": 26.7, "rev_yoy": 15.2, "np_yoy": 4.7, "np_vol": 26.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 83.0, "earn_yield": 3.5, "consensus_n": 16, "fwd_pe": 24.4, "fwd_pe2": 20.0, "fwd_g1": 19.0, "fwd_g2": 22.0, "peg": 1.11, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["消费电子", 77.0], ["汽车电子(AR+)", 8.0], ["汽车电子", 8.0], ["反光材料", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 14.7, "ret_prev2_year": 71.8, "ret_ytd": -0.1, "ret_pivot": 63.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.9, "ret_60": -25.0, "ret_120": -9.2, "ret_250": -5.0, "mdd_250": -43.3, "vol_250": 58.1, "pos_52w": 57.2}, "S": {"duration": 51, "pricing": 53, "hard": 76, "bondness": 26}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 28.9 倍、股息率 1.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 27.8%、固定资产占比 48%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.4 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 48%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 27.8%,稳定度 90%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.0%(经营现金流/市值 4.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.8%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 48%,资本开支/折旧 2.23 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 28.9 倍 粗算,约 83%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -5%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 58%,现价在 52 周高点的 57%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / -25% / -9%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光学光电子」95 家中位:PE 61.6 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 19.3% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 43%。", "水晶光电:PE 比行业中位低 32.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 16.4个百分点。"]}}