{"F": {"ts_code": "002272.SZ", "name": "川润股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "其他通用设备", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20080919", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.89, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 5.5731, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 818957.7597, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.8, 23.5, 19.8, 16.4, 17.7, 18.4], "rev_series": [12.7, 15.3, 17.0, 16.6, 16.0, 17.5], "np_series": [0.7, 0.5, 0.1, -0.6, -1.2, -0.2], "roe_series": [4.8, 3.6, 0.8, -4.4, -7.9, -1.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 18.2, "np_ttm": -0.3, "ocf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_ttm": -1.4, "fcf_yield": -1.7, "ocf_yield": -0.1, "gm_median": 18.4, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": -7.0, "npm_median": -1.2, "roe_median": -1.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.3, "fix_assets": 6.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 5.57, "capex_dep": 1.98, "interest_debt": 11.5, "debt_ebitda": 11.9, "debt_ratio": 59.1, "debt_mv": 14.0, "payout": null, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 1.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 9.0, "np_yoy": -41.2, "np_vol": 248.9, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 43.0], ["新能源流体系统", 19.0], ["清洁能源装备及解决方案（余热、生物质发电锅炉、电", 11.0], ["清洁能源装备及解决方案", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 66.0, "ret_prev2_year": 45.1, "ret_ytd": 3.3, "ret_pivot": 255.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 14.3, "ret_60": -18.8, "ret_120": -9.7, "ret_250": -13.1, "mdd_250": -50.0, "vol_250": 69.3, "pos_52w": 67.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 43, "hard": 29, "bondness": 34}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 59%,有息负债 12 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 18%,毛利率近 5 年中位 18.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.7%(经营现金流/市值 -0.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.4%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 1.98 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -13%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 69%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 14% / -19% / -10%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "川润股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.5个百分点。"]}}