{"F": {"ts_code": "002263.SZ", "name": "大东南", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "塑料", "sw3": "膜材料", "ind": "塑料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20080728", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.15, "pe_ttm": 290.4164, "pb": 2.1258, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 591683.4315, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.9, 21.7, 11.9, 8.6, 10.2, 11.5], "rev_series": [15.1, 16.7, 15.8, 13.3, 13.2, 12.3], "np_series": [1.8, 2.4, 0.7, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2], "roe_series": [7.6, 9.6, 2.5, 0.8, 0.7, 0.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.7, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_yield": 1.5, "ocf_yield": 2.5, "gm_median": 11.5, "gm_std": 4.6, "gm_stab": 0.6, "gm_chg_2022": -9.0, "npm_median": 1.6, "roe_median": 0.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 37.2, "fix_assets": 11.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.13, "capex_dep": 0.56, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 6.2, "debt_mv": null, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -8.1, "np_cagr3": -35.2, "rev_yoy": 6.1, "np_yoy": 24.1, "np_vol": 42.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 43.0], ["BOPET膜", 16.0], ["BOPP电容薄膜", 13.0], ["BOPP(电容膜)", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 34.3, "ret_prev2_year": -1.6, "ret_ytd": -5.4, "ret_pivot": 65.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.6, "ret_60": -18.0, "ret_120": -13.5, "ret_250": -13.0, "mdd_250": -47.8, "vol_250": 53.2, "pos_52w": 60.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 30, "hard": 60, "bondness": 23}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 37%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 11.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.0 个百分点;资产负债率 6%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 37%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 11.5%,稳定度 60%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.5%(经营现金流/市值 2.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.5%,稳定度 60%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 37%,资本开支/折旧 0.56 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 290.4 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -13%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -18% / -14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「塑料」77 家中位:PE 41.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 40%。", "大东南:PE 比行业中位高 249.3倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.3个百分点。"]}}