{"F": {"ts_code": "002261.SZ", "name": "拓维信息", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "垂直应用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20080723", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 25.48, "pe_ttm": 592.7532, "pb": 12.2899, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 3210297.0536, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [41.6, 31.7, 23.9, 20.5, 14.0, 16.3], "rev_series": [14.9, 22.3, 22.4, 31.5, 41.1, 31.7], "np_series": [0.5, 0.8, -10.1, 0.4, -1.0, 0.6], "roe_series": [1.8, 2.7, -33.8, 1.8, -4.0, 2.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 31.8, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 5.6, "fcf_ttm": 4.9, "fcf_yield": 1.5, "ocf_yield": 1.7, "gm_median": 20.5, "gm_std": 6.2, "gm_stab": 0.7, "gm_chg_2022": -17.6, "npm_median": 1.3, "roe_median": 1.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 2.0, "fix_assets": 0.8, "goodwill_ratio": 1.0, "pb_calc": 12.29, "capex_dep": 2.31, "interest_debt": 1.7, "debt_ebitda": 0.8, "debt_ratio": 35.7, "debt_mv": 0.5, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 12.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 0.4, "np_yoy": -12.2, "np_vol": 563.3, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["软件服务", 39.0], ["软件及服务", 39.0], ["智能计算产品", 8.0], ["其他主营业务", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 80.8, "ret_prev2_year": 21.7, "ret_ytd": -23.0, "ret_pivot": 73.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.3, "ret_60": -11.9, "ret_120": -30.9, "ret_250": -30.4, "mdd_250": -44.2, "vol_250": 54.2, "pos_52w": 57.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 38, "hard": 3, "bondness": 10}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.5 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 593 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 36%,有息负债 2 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.7%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 2%,毛利率近 5 年中位 20.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.5%(经营现金流/市值 1.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 20.5%,稳定度 70%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -17.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 2%,资本开支/折旧 2.31 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 592.8 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -30%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / -12% / -31%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "拓维信息:PE 比行业中位高 510.1倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 28.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.8个百分点。"]}}