{"F": {"ts_code": "002259.SZ", "name": "升达林业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "燃气Ⅱ", "sw3": "燃气Ⅲ", "ind": "燃气Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20080716", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.27, "pe_ttm": 15.5012, "pb": 6.8244, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 321244.1841, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [15.7, 11.1, 7.6, 13.9, 17.9, 10.0], "rev_series": [9.6, 15.1, 18.5, 7.8, 7.3, 10.0], "np_series": [1.1, 0.5, -0.6, -0.0, 0.1, 1.3], "roe_series": [69.5, 58.0, -35.5, -0.5, 4.8, 41.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.3, "np_ttm": 2.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_yield": 0.5, "ocf_yield": 0.5, "gm_median": 11.1, "gm_std": 3.5, "gm_stab": 0.68, "gm_chg_2022": -8.1, "npm_median": 1.4, "roe_median": 4.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 58.5, "fix_assets": 4.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.82, "capex_dep": 0.01, "interest_debt": 0.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 34.0, "debt_mv": 1.2, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -18.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -14.6, "np_yoy": 536.0, "np_vol": 578.1, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 68.0, "earn_yield": 6.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["LNG及燃气销售", 44.0], ["LNG加工费", 5.0], ["其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 58.8, "ret_prev2_year": -30.6, "ret_ytd": 13.0, "ret_pivot": 77.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.5, "ret_60": -6.2, "ret_120": -26.4, "ret_250": -12.0, "mdd_250": -46.9, "vol_250": 47.5, "pos_52w": 67.7}, "S": {"duration": 32, "pricing": 33, "hard": 94, "bondness": 21}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 2.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 16 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 34%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.5%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 58%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 11.1%,稳定度 68%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.5%(经营现金流/市值 0.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.1%,稳定度 68%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 58%,资本开支/折旧 0.01 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 15.5 倍 粗算,约 68%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -12%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / -6% / -26%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「燃气Ⅱ」30 家中位:PE 22.2 / 股息率 2.5% / 毛利率 15.7% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 50%。", "升达林业:PE 比行业中位低 6.7倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.9个百分点。"]}}