{"F": {"ts_code": "002254.SZ", "name": "泰和新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学纤维", "sw3": "其他化学纤维", "ind": "化学纤维", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20080625", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.73, "pe_ttm": 148.0118, "pb": 1.526, "dv_ttm": 0.1565, "total_mv": 1083995.3986, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.2, 37.2, 23.1, 24.2, 16.0, 16.6], "rev_series": [24.4, 44.0, 37.5, 39.3, 39.3, 36.0], "np_series": [2.6, 9.7, 4.4, 3.3, 0.9, 0.4], "roe_series": [9.0, 26.0, 10.9, 5.9, 1.2, 0.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 38.1, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 6.5, "fcf_ttm": 5.6, "fcf_yield": 5.2, "ocf_yield": 6.0, "gm_median": 23.1, "gm_std": 7.7, "gm_stab": 0.67, "gm_chg_2022": -0.1, "npm_median": 9.2, "roe_median": 5.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 47.0, "fix_assets": 79.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 1.53, "capex_dep": 0.13, "interest_debt": 54.0, "debt_ebitda": 6.9, "debt_ratio": 53.2, "debt_mv": 49.8, "payout": 50.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -1.4, "np_cagr3": -54.4, "rev_yoy": 11.4, "np_yoy": 135.3, "np_vol": 129.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 74.9, "fwd_pe2": 50.9, "fwd_g1": 98.0, "fwd_g2": 47.0, "peg": 1.59, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 39.0], ["安防与信息及新能源产业用产品", 22.0], ["安全防护、信息技术及新能源产业用产品", 22.0], ["先进纺织品", 16.0]], "ret_prev_year": 7.2, "ret_prev2_year": -36.1, "ret_ytd": 27.3, "ret_pivot": 57.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.6, "ret_60": -32.7, "ret_120": 2.6, "ret_250": 16.0, "mdd_250": -45.5, "vol_250": 56.6, "pos_52w": 63.1}, "S": {"duration": 98, "pricing": 42, "hard": 75, "bondness": 53}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 148.0 倍、股息率 0.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 23.1%、固定资产占比 47%、有息负债/EBITDA 6.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 47%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 23.1%,稳定度 67%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.2%(经营现金流/市值 6.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.1%,稳定度 67%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 47%,资本开支/折旧 0.13 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 148.0 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 16%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 57%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -33% / 3%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学纤维」27 家中位:PE 32.4 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 15.3% / 固定资产占比 46% / 分红率 35%。", "泰和新材:PE 比行业中位高 115.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.4个百分点。"]}}