{"F": {"ts_code": "002252.SZ", "name": "上海莱士", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "生物制品", "sw3": "血液制品", "ind": "生物制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20080623", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.92, "pe_ttm": 26.8433, "pb": 1.0007, "dv_ttm": 0.9782, "total_mv": 3243595.0594, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [62.0, 51.8, 44.2, 40.8, 40.6, 37.4], "rev_series": [27.6, 42.9, 65.7, 79.6, 81.8, 73.5], "np_series": [13.2, 12.9, 18.8, 17.8, 21.9, 15.8], "roe_series": [7.2, 5.1, 6.9, 6.1, 7.1, 4.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 66.1, "np_ttm": 12.1, "ocf_ttm": -6.6, "fcf_ttm": -11.4, "fcf_yield": -3.5, "ocf_yield": -2.0, "gm_median": 40.8, "gm_std": 4.9, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -17.8, "npm_median": 26.8, "roe_median": 6.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 7.0, "fix_assets": 26.2, "goodwill_ratio": 21.9, "pb_calc": 1.0, "capex_dep": 2.45, "interest_debt": 35.4, "debt_ebitda": 2.4, "debt_ratio": 13.5, "debt_mv": 10.9, "payout": 20.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 3.8, "np_cagr3": -5.7, "rev_yoy": -18.8, "np_yoy": -35.8, "np_vol": 25.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 81.0, "earn_yield": 3.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 45.0], ["进口白蛋白", 20.0], ["静注人免疫球蛋白", 10.0], ["静丙", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": -11.9, "ret_prev2_year": -9.1, "ret_ytd": -21.8, "ret_pivot": -23.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.4, "ret_60": 1.3, "ret_120": -20.6, "ret_250": -29.7, "mdd_250": -39.6, "vol_250": 20.2, "pos_52w": 69.0}, "S": {"duration": 49, "pricing": 55, "hard": 11, "bondness": 36}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["商誉占比高", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 26.8 倍、股息率 1.0%、毛利率近 5 年中位 40.8%、固定资产占比 7%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.4 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 40.8%),硬资产占比 7%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.5%(经营现金流/市值 -2.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 40.8%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -17.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 7%,资本开支/折旧 2.45 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 26.8 倍 粗算,约 81%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -30%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 20%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / 1% / -21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「生物制品」55 家中位:PE 32.1 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 75.7% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 40%。", "上海莱士:PE 比行业中位低 5.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 34.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 15.1个百分点。"]}}