{"F": {"ts_code": "002251.SZ", "name": "步步高", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "商贸零售", "sw2": "一般零售", "sw3": "超市", "ind": "一般零售", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20080619", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.8, "pe_ttm": 184.4663, "pb": 1.1983, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1021705.886, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.1, 33.5, 23.7, 43.2, 36.8, 34.1], "rev_series": [156.4, 132.6, 86.9, 30.9, 34.3, 42.1], "np_series": [1.1, -1.8, -25.4, -18.9, 12.1, 1.1], "roe_series": [1.5, -2.5, -42.1, -49.2, 22.6, 1.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 44.2, "np_ttm": 0.6, "ocf_ttm": 8.4, "fcf_ttm": 2.6, "fcf_yield": 2.5, "ocf_yield": 8.2, "gm_median": 34.1, "gm_std": 6.3, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": -6.4, "npm_median": -1.3, "roe_median": -2.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 14.8, "fix_assets": 32.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 1.2, "capex_dep": 2.82, "interest_debt": 69.8, "debt_ebitda": 11.3, "debt_ratio": 59.2, "debt_mv": 68.3, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -21.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 9.9, "np_yoy": -28.6, "np_vol": 515.6, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.5, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 46.1, "fwd_pe2": 32.3, "fwd_g1": 300.0, "fwd_g2": 42.0, "peg": 1.1, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["超市", 34.0], ["其他业务", 12.0], ["百货", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 34.4, "ret_prev2_year": -2.2, "ret_ytd": -28.4, "ret_pivot": 50.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.8, "ret_60": -2.6, "ret_120": -17.0, "ret_250": -23.8, "mdd_250": -53.2, "vol_250": 51.1, "pos_52w": 53.4}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 50, "hard": 24, "bondness": 35}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.6 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 184 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 59%,有息负债 70 亿,经营现金流/市值 8.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 15%,毛利率近 5 年中位 34.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.5%(经营现金流/市值 8.2%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 34.1%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 2.82 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 184.5 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -24%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 53%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -3% / -17%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「一般零售」60 家中位:PE 60.7 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 34.2% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 51%。", "步步高:PE 比行业中位高 123.8倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点。"]}}