{"F": {"ts_code": "002250.SZ", "name": "联化科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "农化制品", "sw3": "农药", "ind": "农化制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20080619", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.41, "pe_ttm": 27.3948, "pb": 2.0045, "dv_ttm": 1.2979, "total_mv": 1386704.7553, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [36.1, 26.9, 26.1, 19.9, 26.1, 26.0], "rev_series": [47.8, 65.9, 78.7, 64.4, 56.8, 64.3], "np_series": [1.1, 3.2, 7.0, -4.7, 1.0, 3.6], "roe_series": [1.8, 5.1, 10.5, -6.9, 1.6, 5.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 72.8, "np_ttm": 5.1, "ocf_ttm": 13.9, "fcf_ttm": 8.5, "fcf_yield": 6.1, "ocf_yield": 10.0, "gm_median": 26.1, "gm_std": 2.6, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -9.9, "npm_median": 4.9, "roe_median": 5.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 46.5, "fix_assets": 66.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.0, "capex_dep": 0.65, "interest_debt": 34.0, "debt_ebitda": 1.9, "debt_ratio": 48.7, "debt_mv": 24.5, "payout": 34.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -6.5, "np_cagr3": -19.6, "rev_yoy": 26.8, "np_yoy": 64.4, "np_vol": 143.1, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 82.0, "earn_yield": 3.7, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 22.2, "fwd_pe2": 17.4, "fwd_g1": 23.0, "fwd_g2": 28.0, "peg": 0.79, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 40.0], ["植保产品", 19.0], ["植保", 19.0], ["医药", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 149.1, "ret_prev2_year": -23.2, "ret_ytd": 16.9, "ret_pivot": 259.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.0, "ret_60": 11.4, "ret_120": -5.4, "ret_250": 49.6, "mdd_250": -30.2, "vol_250": 52.3, "pos_52w": 82.7}, "S": {"duration": 50, "pricing": 48, "hard": 74, "bondness": 45}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 64%,PE TTM 27.4 倍 但前瞻 PE 22.2 倍,PEG 0.79。", "自由现金流 8.5 亿(正),次年预期增速 28%(5 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 46%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 26.1%,稳定度 90%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.1%(经营现金流/市值 10.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 26.1%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 46%,资本开支/折旧 0.65 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 27.4 倍 粗算,约 82%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 50%,最大回撤 -30%,年化波动 52%,现价在 52 周高点的 83%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / 11% / -5%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农化制品」62 家中位:PE 20.8 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 19.9% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 45%。", "联化科技:PE 比行业中位高 6.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 10.9个百分点。"]}}