{"F": {"ts_code": "002249.SZ", "name": "大洋电机", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电机Ⅱ", "sw3": "电机Ⅲ", "ind": "电机Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20080619", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.66, "pe_ttm": 18.274, "pb": 1.6829, "dv_ttm": 4.4128, "total_mv": 1643013.4086, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [22.2, 19.6, 20.3, 22.7, 22.2, 22.3], "rev_series": [77.8, 100.2, 109.3, 112.9, 121.1, 122.2], "np_series": [1.0, 2.5, 4.3, 6.3, 8.9, 10.8], "roe_series": [1.3, 3.0, 5.2, 7.4, 9.9, 11.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 121.6, "np_ttm": 9.0, "ocf_ttm": 16.9, "fcf_ttm": 11.9, "fcf_yield": 7.3, "ocf_yield": 10.3, "gm_median": 22.2, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -1.9, "npm_median": 6.0, "roe_median": 7.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.7, "fix_assets": 22.5, "goodwill_ratio": 4.3, "pb_calc": 1.68, "capex_dep": 1.79, "interest_debt": 6.6, "debt_ebitda": 0.5, "debt_ratio": 48.2, "debt_mv": 4.0, "payout": 67.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 3.8, "np_cagr3": 36.4, "rev_yoy": -1.0, "np_yoy": -30.5, "np_vol": 41.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 73.0, "earn_yield": 5.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 44.0], ["建筑及家居用电机", 24.0], ["起动机及发电机", 13.0], ["起动机与发电机", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 96.6, "ret_prev2_year": 25.0, "ret_ytd": -37.8, "ret_pivot": 54.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -10.0, "ret_60": -15.2, "ret_120": -31.8, "ret_250": -15.6, "mdd_250": -49.4, "vol_250": 48.6, "pos_52w": 51.1}, "S": {"duration": 37, "pricing": 50, "hard": 19, "bondness": 68}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 67%、股息率 4.4%、营收 3 年复合 3.8%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.5 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 12%,毛利率近 5 年中位 22.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.3%(经营现金流/市值 10.3%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.2%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 1.79 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 18.3 倍 粗算,约 73%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -16%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 51%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / -15% / -32%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电机Ⅱ」28 家中位:PE 46.1 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 20.8% / 固定资产占比 20% / 分红率 38%。", "大洋电机:PE 比行业中位低 27.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.1个百分点。"]}}