{"F": {"ts_code": "002248.SZ", "name": "华东数控", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "机床工具", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20080612", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.7, "pe_ttm": 90.3825, "pb": 24.8956, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 298270.732, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.6, 17.6, 23.8, 19.5, 20.7, 28.9], "rev_series": [2.1, 3.2, 2.5, 2.8, 3.3, 3.4], "np_series": [-0.8, 0.1, 0.1, -0.2, 0.1, 0.3], "roe_series": [-93.8, 25.3, 16.6, -23.5, 12.8, 38.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.3, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_yield": 0.8, "ocf_yield": 0.9, "gm_median": 20.7, "gm_std": 3.9, "gm_stab": 0.81, "gm_chg_2022": 9.2, "npm_median": 3.9, "roe_median": 16.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 12.2, "fix_assets": 0.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 24.9, "capex_dep": 0.1, "interest_debt": 0.7, "debt_ebitda": 1.3, "debt_ratio": 76.3, "debt_mv": 2.3, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 10.0, "np_cagr3": 42.5, "rev_yoy": -5.2, "np_yoy": -5.5, "np_vol": 180.8, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["数控机床", 46.0], ["数控产品", 46.0], ["普通机床", 4.0], ["普通产品", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 48.0, "ret_prev2_year": -4.4, "ret_ytd": -15.9, "ret_pivot": 63.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.1, "ret_60": 3.0, "ret_120": -31.4, "ret_250": -7.8, "mdd_250": -50.4, "vol_250": 54.1, "pos_52w": 62.3}, "S": {"duration": 90, "pricing": 50, "hard": 20, "bondness": 14}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 90.4 倍,估值里约 94% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 12%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 12%,毛利率近 5 年中位 20.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.8%(经营现金流/市值 0.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 20.7%,稳定度 81%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 9.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 0.10 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 90.4 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -8%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / 3% / -31%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "华东数控:PE 比行业中位高 39.8倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.6个百分点。"]}}