{"F": {"ts_code": "002246.SZ", "name": "北化股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "民爆制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20080605", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 21.35, "pe_ttm": 30.7188, "pb": 3.592, "dv_ttm": 0.281, "total_mv": 1172189.298, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.9, 20.5, 18.9, 21.5, 19.3, 29.4], "rev_series": [23.6, 26.3, 25.6, 21.6, 19.5, 27.5], "np_series": [0.9, 1.2, 0.9, 0.6, -0.3, 2.6], "roe_series": [3.5, 4.5, 3.3, 1.9, -1.0, 8.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 29.6, "np_ttm": 3.8, "ocf_ttm": 5.0, "fcf_ttm": 2.5, "fcf_yield": 2.1, "ocf_yield": 4.3, "gm_median": 20.5, "gm_std": 3.8, "gm_stab": 0.81, "gm_chg_2022": -2.0, "npm_median": 3.5, "roe_median": 3.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 21.6, "fix_assets": 11.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.59, "capex_dep": 2.76, "interest_debt": 1.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 36.2, "debt_mv": 1.0, "payout": 31.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 2.4, "np_cagr3": 41.4, "rev_yoy": 18.2, "np_yoy": 111.1, "np_vol": 433.9, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 84.0, "earn_yield": 3.3, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": 26.6, "fwd_pe2": 20.0, "fwd_g1": 16.0, "fwd_g2": 33.0, "peg": 0.81, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["硝化棉相关产品", 35.0], ["工业用泵", 18.0], ["工业泵", 18.0], ["防护器材", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 78.7, "ret_prev2_year": 25.0, "ret_ytd": 18.9, "ret_pivot": 150.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.4, "ret_60": 4.1, "ret_120": -11.4, "ret_250": 17.1, "mdd_250": -35.4, "vol_250": 51.2, "pos_52w": 79.0}, "S": {"duration": 54, "pricing": 45, "hard": 35, "bondness": 31}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 111%,PE TTM 30.7 倍 但前瞻 PE 26.6 倍,PEG 0.81。", "自由现金流 2.5 亿(正),次年预期增速 33%(7 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 22%,毛利率近 5 年中位 20.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.1%(经营现金流/市值 4.3%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 20.5%,稳定度 81%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 22%,资本开支/折旧 2.76 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 30.7 倍 粗算,约 84%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 17%,最大回撤 -35%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 79%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / 4% / -11%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "北化股份:PE 比行业中位低 5.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 12.9个百分点。"]}}