{"F": {"ts_code": "002245.SZ", "name": "蔚蓝锂芯", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "锂电池", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20080605", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.86, "pe_ttm": 32.4533, "pb": 3.6227, "dv_ttm": 0.4002, "total_mv": 2883349.7796, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [16.1, 20.4, 15.8, 12.8, 17.6, 19.9], "rev_series": [42.3, 66.8, 62.9, 52.2, 67.6, 81.1], "np_series": [2.8, 6.7, 3.8, 1.4, 4.9, 7.1], "roe_series": [11.9, 21.8, 7.6, 2.2, 7.3, 9.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 92.4, "np_ttm": 8.9, "ocf_ttm": 13.9, "fcf_ttm": 5.2, "fcf_yield": 1.8, "ocf_yield": 4.8, "gm_median": 17.6, "gm_std": 2.8, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": -0.3, "npm_median": 8.0, "roe_median": 7.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 38.3, "fix_assets": 54.2, "goodwill_ratio": 4.2, "pb_calc": 3.62, "capex_dep": 1.67, "interest_debt": 2.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 41.2, "debt_mv": 0.9, "payout": 15.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 8.9, "np_cagr3": 23.4, "rev_yoy": 30.3, "np_yoy": 53.4, "np_vol": 115.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 3.1, "consensus_n": 14, "fwd_pe": 21.3, "fwd_pe2": 14.6, "fwd_g1": 52.0, "fwd_g2": 46.0, "peg": 0.46, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["锂电池产品", 30.0], ["锂电池", 30.0], ["金属物流产品", 16.0], ["LED产品", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 68.2, "ret_prev2_year": 26.2, "ret_ytd": 41.0, "ret_pivot": 264.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.5, "ret_60": -15.1, "ret_120": 39.2, "ret_250": 43.5, "mdd_250": -33.6, "vol_250": 55.5, "pos_52w": 74.0}, "S": {"duration": 56, "pricing": 45, "hard": 61, "bondness": 19}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["成长兑现", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 38%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 17.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.3 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 0.2 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 38%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 17.6%,稳定度 84%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.8%(经营现金流/市值 4.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.6%,稳定度 84%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 1.67 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 32.5 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 44%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 56%,现价在 52 周高点的 74%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -15% / 39%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "蔚蓝锂芯:PE 比行业中位低 3.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 10.5个百分点。"]}}