{"F": {"ts_code": "002240.SZ", "name": "盛新锂能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "能源金属", "sw3": "锂", "ind": "能源金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20080523", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 29.47, "pe_ttm": 27.959, "pb": 2.391, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 2697371.1233, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [4.2, 46.4, 60.1, 12.5, 2.4, 18.4], "rev_series": [17.9, 29.3, 120.4, 79.5, 45.8, 50.6], "np_series": [0.3, 8.5, 55.5, 7.0, -6.2, -8.9], "roe_series": [0.9, 20.5, 62.3, 5.5, -5.0, -8.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 108.1, "np_ttm": 9.6, "ocf_ttm": 5.2, "fcf_ttm": -1.1, "fcf_yield": -0.4, "ocf_yield": 1.9, "gm_median": 18.4, "gm_std": 21.7, "gm_stab": -0.18, "gm_chg_2022": 55.9, "npm_median": 8.7, "roe_median": 5.5, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 27.4, "fix_assets": 81.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.39, "capex_dep": 0.83, "interest_debt": 151.2, "debt_ebitda": 3.9, "debt_ratio": 58.8, "debt_mv": 56.0, "payout": 31.2, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -25.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 355.9, "np_yoy": 220.3, "np_vol": 1216.9, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 82.0, "earn_yield": 3.6, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": 13.1, "fwd_pe2": 10.9, "fwd_g1": 114.0, "fwd_g2": 20.0, "peg": 0.66, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["锂盐", 33.0], ["锂产品", 33.0], ["林木", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 149.9, "ret_prev2_year": -38.8, "ret_ytd": -14.4, "ret_pivot": 171.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.0, "ret_60": -42.2, "ret_120": -27.0, "ret_250": 69.1, "mdd_250": -58.2, "vol_250": 69.9, "pos_52w": 47.4}, "S": {"duration": 50, "pricing": 70, "hard": 44, "bondness": 43}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["商品定价", "近5年≥2年亏损", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 9.6 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 28 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 59%,有息负债 151 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.9%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 18.4%),硬资产占比 27%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.4%(经营现金流/市值 1.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.4%,稳定度 -18%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 55.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 27%,资本开支/折旧 0.83 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 28.0 倍 粗算,约 82%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 69%,最大回撤 -58%,年化波动 70%,现价在 52 周高点的 47%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -42% / -27%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「能源金属」11 家中位:PE 17.9 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 18.4% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 31%。", "盛新锂能:PE 比行业中位高 10.1倍;股息率 ;毛利率 与行业中位持平;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.1个百分点。"]}}