{"F": {"ts_code": "002237.SZ", "name": "恒邦股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "贵金属", "sw3": "黄金", "ind": "贵金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20080520", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": true, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.96, "pe_ttm": 21.5256, "pb": 1.5576, "dv_ttm": 0.8957, "total_mv": 2139235.7184, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [4.8, 5.0, 3.8, 2.7, 2.5, 2.0], "rev_series": [360.5, 413.8, 500.5, 655.8, 758.0, 1123.9], "np_series": [3.7, 4.5, 5.0, 5.2, 5.4, 6.4], "roe_series": [6.0, 5.9, 6.2, 5.9, 5.6, 5.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1315.2, "np_ttm": 10.0, "ocf_ttm": -13.7, "fcf_ttm": -29.1, "fcf_yield": -13.6, "ocf_yield": -6.4, "gm_median": 2.7, "gm_std": 1.1, "gm_stab": 0.6, "gm_chg_2022": -1.0, "npm_median": 0.7, "roe_median": 5.9, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 22.6, "fix_assets": 84.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.56, "capex_dep": 2.17, "interest_debt": 172.2, "debt_ebitda": 8.9, "debt_ratio": 63.6, "debt_mv": 80.5, "payout": 30.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 31.0, "np_cagr3": 8.5, "rev_yoy": 44.4, "np_yoy": 112.6, "np_vol": 7.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 77.0, "earn_yield": 4.6, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 14.7, "fwd_pe2": 10.9, "fwd_g1": 47.0, "fwd_g2": 34.0, "peg": 0.43, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["黄金", 59.0], ["电解铜", 19.0], ["白银", 15.0], ["有色金属贸易", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 35.2, "ret_prev2_year": -5.3, "ret_ytd": 12.6, "ret_pivot": 63.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.0, "ret_60": 21.7, "ret_120": -10.2, "ret_250": 20.0, "mdd_250": -46.5, "vol_250": 54.0, "pos_52w": 65.6}, "S": {"duration": 42, "pricing": 70, "hard": 36, "bondness": 31}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["商品定价", "资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 21.5 倍、股息率 0.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 2.7%、固定资产占比 23%、有息负债/EBITDA 8.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 2.7%),硬资产占比 23%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。 注意:金矿股不等于黄金,有运营杠杆和自身成本通胀,对冲美元信用直接买黄金 ETF 更纯。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -13.6%(经营现金流/市值 -6.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 2.7%,稳定度 60%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 23%,资本开支/折旧 2.17 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 21.5 倍 粗算,约 77%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 20%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 22% / -10%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「贵金属」11 家中位:PE 30.8 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 13.3% / 固定资产占比 27% / 分红率 32%。", "恒邦股份:PE 比行业中位低 9.3倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.1个百分点。"]}}