{"F": {"ts_code": "002236.SZ", "name": "大华股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "计算机设备", "sw3": "安防设备", "ind": "计算机设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20080520", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.31, "pe_ttm": 14.1612, "pb": 1.3638, "dv_ttm": 3.3826, "total_mv": 5332166.4851, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [42.7, 38.9, 37.9, 42.0, 38.8, 40.6], "rev_series": [264.7, 328.4, 305.7, 322.2, 321.8, 327.4], "np_series": [39.0, 33.8, 23.2, 73.6, 29.1, 38.6], "roe_series": [22.0, 15.6, 9.4, 24.3, 8.2, 10.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 342.7, "np_ttm": 37.7, "ocf_ttm": 21.6, "fcf_ttm": 15.1, "fcf_yield": 2.8, "ocf_yield": 4.1, "gm_median": 38.9, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -4.8, "npm_median": 10.4, "roe_median": 10.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 10.8, "fix_assets": 59.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.36, "capex_dep": 1.0, "interest_debt": 27.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.6, "debt_ratio": 28.1, "debt_mv": 5.1, "payout": 47.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 2.3, "np_cagr3": 18.4, "rev_yoy": 10.0, "np_yoy": -3.7, "np_vol": 98.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 65.0, "earn_yield": 7.1, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 13.4, "fwd_pe2": 12.1, "fwd_g1": 6.0, "fwd_g2": 11.0, "peg": 1.22, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["创新业务", 53.0], ["软件业务", 20.0], ["智慧物联产品及方案：软件业务", 20.0], ["其他主营业务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 23.9, "ret_prev2_year": -11.2, "ret_ytd": -12.2, "ret_pivot": 24.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.1, "ret_60": 3.0, "ret_120": -7.9, "ret_250": -10.4, "mdd_250": -24.4, "vol_250": 30.1, "pos_52w": 77.9}, "S": {"duration": 30, "pricing": 57, "hard": 17, "bondness": 56}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 47%、股息率 3.4%、营收 3 年复合 2.3%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.6 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 38.9%),硬资产占比 11%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.8%(经营现金流/市值 4.1%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 38.9%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 1.00 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 14.2 倍 粗算,约 65%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -10%,最大回撤 -24%,年化波动 30%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / 3% / -8%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「计算机设备」88 家中位:PE 51.7 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 35.8% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 49%。", "大华股份:PE 比行业中位低 37.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点。"]}}