{"F": {"ts_code": "002234.SZ", "name": "民和股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "养殖业", "sw3": "肉鸡养殖", "ind": "养殖业", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20080516", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.34, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.738, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 291032.8068, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.2, 18.1, -7.5, 3.3, 8.1, 4.8], "rev_series": [16.8, 17.8, 16.1, 20.7, 21.6, 21.6], "np_series": [0.7, 0.5, -4.5, -3.9, -2.5, -2.7], "roe_series": [2.5, 1.7, -15.6, -15.6, -11.5, -14.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 22.0, "np_ttm": -1.5, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 1.3, "ocf_yield": 4.9, "gm_median": 4.8, "gm_std": 8.2, "gm_stab": -0.71, "gm_chg_2022": -27.7, "npm_median": -12.0, "roe_median": -14.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 55.0, "fix_assets": 19.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.74, "capex_dep": 0.62, "interest_debt": 13.7, "debt_ebitda": 13.2, "debt_ratio": 53.9, "debt_mv": 46.9, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 10.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 4.2, "np_yoy": 55.6, "np_vol": 421.7, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["鸡肉制品收入", 33.0], ["鸡肉制品", 33.0], ["雏鸡", 28.0], ["淘汰鸡", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": -3.0, "ret_prev2_year": -26.5, "ret_ytd": -3.2, "ret_pivot": 14.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 15.2, "ret_60": 18.3, "ret_120": -10.8, "ret_250": -6.8, "mdd_250": -33.6, "vol_250": 32.4, "pos_52w": 86.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 6, "hard": 88, "bondness": 25}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 55%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 4.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -27.7 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 13.2 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 55%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 4.8%,稳定度 -71%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.3%(经营现金流/市值 4.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 4.8%,稳定度 -71%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -27.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 55%,资本开支/折旧 0.62 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -7%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 86%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 15% / 18% / -11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「养殖业」22 家中位:PE 39.4 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 11.1% / 固定资产占比 50% / 分红率 50%。", "民和股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.8个百分点。"]}}