{"F": {"ts_code": "002233.SZ", "name": "塔牌集团", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑材料", "sw2": "水泥", "sw3": "水泥制造", "ind": "水泥", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20080516", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.09, "pe_ttm": 19.9111, "pb": 0.7105, "dv_ttm": 6.7538, "total_mv": 832472.7045, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [39.7, 37.2, 17.0, 26.3, 22.1, 24.5], "rev_series": [70.5, 77.1, 60.3, 55.3, 42.8, 41.1], "np_series": [17.8, 18.4, 2.7, 7.4, 5.4, 6.3], "roe_series": [17.6, 16.6, 2.3, 6.4, 4.5, 5.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 37.9, "np_ttm": 4.2, "ocf_ttm": 8.1, "fcf_ttm": 4.4, "fcf_yield": 5.3, "ocf_yield": 9.8, "gm_median": 24.5, "gm_std": 6.7, "gm_stab": 0.73, "gm_chg_2022": -22.7, "npm_median": 13.5, "roe_median": 5.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 24.5, "fix_assets": 31.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.71, "capex_dep": 0.9, "interest_debt": 0.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 9.4, "debt_mv": 0.3, "payout": 88.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -12.0, "np_cagr3": 33.5, "rev_yoy": -15.3, "np_yoy": -49.6, "np_vol": 88.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 75.0, "earn_yield": 5.0, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 14.9, "fwd_pe2": 13.6, "fwd_g1": 33.0, "fwd_g2": 9.0, "peg": 1.66, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["水泥", 83.0], ["环保处置", 4.0], ["熟料销售", 3.0], ["熟料", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 26.6, "ret_prev2_year": 19.3, "ret_ytd": -16.9, "ret_pivot": 23.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.3, "ret_60": -5.3, "ret_120": -22.6, "ret_250": -15.5, "mdd_250": -27.5, "vol_250": 29.2, "pos_52w": 73.8}, "S": {"duration": 39, "pricing": 42, "hard": 39, "bondness": 81}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 89%、股息率 6.8%、营收 3 年复合 -12.0%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 24%,毛利率近 5 年中位 24.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.3%(经营现金流/市值 9.8%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.5%,稳定度 73%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -22.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 24%,资本开支/折旧 0.90 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 19.9 倍 粗算,约 75%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -16%,最大回撤 -28%,年化波动 29%,现价在 52 周高点的 74%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -5% / -23%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「水泥」21 家中位:PE 19.9 / 股息率 2.8% / 毛利率 17.5% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "塔牌集团:PE 与行业中位持平;股息率 比行业中位高 4.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.3个百分点。"]}}