{"F": {"ts_code": "002232.SZ", "name": "启明信息", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "IT服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "IT服务Ⅲ", "ind": "IT服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20080509", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.8, "pe_ttm": 179.0701, "pb": 4.2599, "dv_ttm": 0.1622, "total_mv": 604651.78, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.3, 22.3, 17.9, 14.3, 21.5, 27.4], "rev_series": [15.5, 10.5, 15.4, 12.4, 8.8, 7.7], "np_series": [1.3, 0.4, 0.7, 0.3, 0.0, 0.3], "roe_series": [10.2, 3.1, 5.4, 2.1, 0.3, 2.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.0, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_yield": 1.0, "ocf_yield": 2.3, "gm_median": 21.5, "gm_std": 4.4, "gm_stab": 0.79, "gm_chg_2022": -6.4, "npm_median": 3.8, "roe_median": 2.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 5.3, "fix_assets": 1.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.26, "capex_dep": 2.33, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 26.3, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 30.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -20.5, "np_cagr3": -23.7, "rev_yoy": 7.8, "np_yoy": 8.6, "np_vol": 298.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["管理软件及服务", 60.0], ["集成服务", 26.0], ["汽车电子及服务", 14.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -1.1, "ret_prev2_year": 12.2, "ret_ytd": -21.2, "ret_pivot": -17.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.4, "ret_60": 0.5, "ret_120": -16.6, "ret_250": -23.7, "mdd_250": -49.1, "vol_250": 40.9, "pos_52w": 57.3}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 42, "hard": 8, "bondness": 32}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 179.1 倍,估值里约 97% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 5%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 5%,毛利率近 5 年中位 21.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.0%(经营现金流/市值 2.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.5%,稳定度 79%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 5%,资本开支/折旧 2.33 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 179.1 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -24%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 57%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 0% / -17%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「IT服务Ⅱ」134 家中位:PE 84.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 28.1% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 35%。", "启明信息:PE 比行业中位高 95.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.3个百分点。"]}}