{"F": {"ts_code": "002230.SZ", "name": "科大讯飞", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "横向通用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20080512", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 39.5, "pe_ttm": 108.5016, "pb": 4.1543, "dv_ttm": 0.2532, "total_mv": 9488215.372, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [45.1, 41.1, 40.8, 42.7, 42.6, 42.4], "rev_series": [130.2, 183.1, 188.2, 196.5, 233.4, 271.1], "np_series": [13.6, 15.6, 5.6, 6.6, 5.6, 8.4], "roe_series": [11.3, 10.6, 3.4, 3.9, 3.2, 4.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 278.2, "np_ttm": 8.7, "ocf_ttm": 30.4, "fcf_ttm": -3.7, "fcf_yield": -0.4, "ocf_yield": 3.2, "gm_median": 42.4, "gm_std": 0.8, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": -4.3, "npm_median": 3.1, "roe_median": 3.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 12.1, "fix_assets": 62.0, "goodwill_ratio": 2.2, "pb_calc": 4.15, "capex_dep": 4.88, "interest_debt": 97.7, "debt_ebitda": 3.2, "debt_ratio": 53.4, "debt_mv": 10.3, "payout": 35.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 12.9, "np_cagr3": 14.4, "rev_yoy": 6.5, "np_yoy": 14.7, "np_vol": 38.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 13, "fwd_pe": 85.3, "fwd_pe2": 64.1, "fwd_g1": 27.0, "fwd_g2": 33.0, "peg": 2.58, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["开放平台及消费者业务：开放平台", 17.0], ["开放平台", 17.0], ["智慧教育", 16.0], ["教育产品和服务", 16.0]], "ret_prev_year": 4.3, "ret_prev2_year": 4.4, "ret_ytd": -21.3, "ret_pivot": 14.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.3, "ret_60": -2.9, "ret_120": -23.6, "ret_250": -24.2, "mdd_250": -38.9, "vol_250": 35.5, "pos_52w": 62.1}, "S": {"duration": 93, "pricing": 60, "hard": 19, "bondness": 31}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 108.5 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 12%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(13 篇研报)前瞻 PE 85.3 倍,次年 64.1 倍,PEG 2.58。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 42.4%),硬资产占比 12%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.4%(经营现金流/市值 3.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 42.4%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 4.88 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 108.5 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -24%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 36%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -9% / -3% / -24%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "科大讯飞:PE 比行业中位高 25.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.3个百分点。"]}}