{"F": {"ts_code": "002228.SZ", "name": "合兴包装", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "包装印刷", "sw3": "纸包装", "ind": "包装印刷", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20080508", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.22, "pe_ttm": 46.9582, "pb": 1.3122, "dv_ttm": 4.7545, "total_mv": 390710.1632, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [11.4, 8.6, 8.8, 11.4, 12.0, 13.0], "rev_series": [120.1, 175.5, 153.8, 124.1, 114.7, 101.9], "np_series": [2.9, 2.2, 1.3, 1.0, 0.9, 1.0], "roe_series": [8.9, 6.4, 3.9, 3.1, 2.9, 3.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 105.7, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": 2.2, "fcf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_yield": 0.2, "ocf_yield": 5.7, "gm_median": 11.4, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": -2.6, "npm_median": 0.7, "roe_median": 3.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 26.1, "fix_assets": 20.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 1.31, "capex_dep": 0.8, "interest_debt": 14.2, "debt_ebitda": 2.7, "debt_ratio": 59.8, "debt_mv": 36.4, "payout": 177.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -12.8, "np_cagr3": -7.8, "rev_yoy": 7.3, "np_yoy": -17.6, "np_vol": 16.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.1, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 16.9, "fwd_pe2": 16.9, "fwd_g1": 177.0, "fwd_g2": 0.0, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["瓦楞包装", 45.0], ["彩盒包装", 2.0], ["其他主营业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 67.7, "ret_prev2_year": -10.4, "ret_ytd": -27.8, "ret_pivot": 47.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.5, "ret_60": 4.2, "ret_120": -20.9, "ret_250": -1.5, "mdd_250": -54.9, "vol_250": 49.1, "pos_52w": 50.4}, "S": {"duration": 69, "pricing": 41, "hard": 42, "bondness": 92}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 178%、股息率 4.8%、营收 3 年复合 -12.8%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.7 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 26%,毛利率近 5 年中位 11.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.2%(经营现金流/市值 5.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.4%,稳定度 84%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 26%,资本开支/折旧 0.80 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 47.0 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -2%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 50%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 4% / -21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「包装印刷」46 家中位:PE 38.9 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 33% / 分红率 50%。", "合兴包装:PE 比行业中位高 8.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.7个百分点。"]}}