{"F": {"ts_code": "002226.SZ", "name": "江南化工", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "民爆制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20080506", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.16, "pe_ttm": 24.4031, "pb": 1.4256, "dv_ttm": 1.7054, "total_mv": 1366844.2164, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [38.2, 34.8, 28.7, 29.5, 30.1, 30.4], "rev_series": [39.2, 64.8, 70.4, 88.9, 94.8, 99.8], "np_series": [4.5, 10.5, 4.5, 7.7, 8.9, 7.6], "roe_series": [7.3, 14.1, 5.2, 8.8, 9.8, 8.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 103.3, "np_ttm": 5.9, "ocf_ttm": 10.1, "fcf_ttm": 3.8, "fcf_yield": 2.8, "ocf_yield": 7.4, "gm_median": 30.1, "gm_std": 2.1, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -9.5, "npm_median": 11.2, "roe_median": 8.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 34.5, "fix_assets": 79.7, "goodwill_ratio": 7.2, "pb_calc": 1.43, "capex_dep": 0.91, "interest_debt": 77.2, "debt_ebitda": 3.6, "debt_ratio": 49.4, "debt_mv": 56.5, "payout": 22.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 12.3, "np_cagr3": 18.8, "rev_yoy": 2.4, "np_yoy": -43.7, "np_vol": 66.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 80.0, "earn_yield": 4.1, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 16.9, "fwd_pe2": 14.7, "fwd_g1": 44.0, "fwd_g2": 15.0, "peg": 1.13, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["爆破工程服务业务", 17.0], ["爆破工程", 17.0], ["民用炸药", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 8.6, "ret_prev2_year": 26.7, "ret_ytd": -9.8, "ret_pivot": 42.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.8, "ret_60": 10.0, "ret_120": -16.9, "ret_250": -19.3, "mdd_250": -38.9, "vol_250": 32.9, "pos_52w": 73.2}, "S": {"duration": 46, "pricing": 51, "hard": 55, "bondness": 37}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 80 亿,占总资产 34%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 30.1%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.5 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 2.8%,股息率 1.7%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 80%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 34%)和定价权(毛利率 30.1% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.8%(经营现金流/市值 7.4%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 30.1%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 34%,资本开支/折旧 0.91 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 24.4 倍 粗算,约 80%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -19%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 33%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 10% / -17%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "江南化工:PE 比行业中位低 11.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.8个百分点;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}