{"F": {"ts_code": "002225.SZ", "name": "濮耐股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑材料", "sw2": "装修建材", "sw3": "耐火材料", "ind": "装修建材", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20080425", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.62, "pe_ttm": 127.5825, "pb": 1.0312, "dv_ttm": 1.3655, "total_mv": 419644.5904, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.1, 18.7, 20.1, 19.9, 19.0, 17.6], "rev_series": [41.7, 43.8, 49.4, 54.7, 51.9, 54.9], "np_series": [3.0, 0.8, 2.3, 2.5, 1.4, 0.9], "roe_series": [10.4, 2.8, 7.4, 7.5, 4.0, 2.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 53.7, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_yield": 2.0, "ocf_yield": 3.3, "gm_median": 19.0, "gm_std": 0.9, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -6.1, "npm_median": 2.5, "roe_median": 4.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.2, "fix_assets": 17.6, "goodwill_ratio": 2.6, "pb_calc": 1.03, "capex_dep": 0.32, "interest_debt": 19.1, "debt_ebitda": 5.9, "debt_ratio": 54.4, "debt_mv": 45.6, "payout": 35.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 3.6, "np_cagr3": -27.8, "rev_yoy": -4.2, "np_yoy": -77.9, "np_vol": 88.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["定型耐火材料", 28.0], ["功能性耐火材料", 21.0], ["不定形耐火材料", 17.0], ["不定型耐火材料", 17.0]], "ret_prev_year": 16.0, "ret_prev2_year": 34.9, "ret_ytd": -35.9, "ret_pivot": 17.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.7, "ret_60": -10.6, "ret_120": -38.4, "ret_250": -47.2, "mdd_250": -50.7, "vol_250": 50.2, "pos_52w": 52.7}, "S": {"duration": 96, "pricing": 46, "hard": 31, "bondness": 52}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 127.6 倍、股息率 1.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 19.0%、固定资产占比 19%、有息负债/EBITDA 5.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 19%,毛利率近 5 年中位 19.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.0%(经营现金流/市值 3.3%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.0%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 0.32 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 127.6 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -47%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 50%,现价在 52 周高点的 53%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -11% / -38%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「装修建材」39 家中位:PE 36.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 20.7% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 51%。", "濮耐股份:PE 比行业中位高 91.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.6个百分点。"]}}