{"F": {"ts_code": "002222.SZ", "name": "福晶科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "光学光电子", "sw3": "光学元件", "ind": "光学光电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20080319", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 64.4, "pe_ttm": 91.4731, "pb": 15.9657, "dv_ttm": 0.3106, "total_mv": 3028410.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [54.9, 54.7, 57.8, 56.2, 53.8, 51.2], "rev_series": [5.5, 6.9, 7.7, 7.8, 8.8, 11.6], "np_series": [1.4, 1.9, 2.3, 2.1, 2.2, 2.8], "roe_series": [14.1, 16.7, 17.4, 14.8, 14.5, 16.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.6, "np_ttm": 3.3, "ocf_ttm": 5.0, "fcf_ttm": -2.7, "fcf_yield": -0.9, "ocf_yield": 1.7, "gm_median": 54.7, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": 2.9, "npm_median": 27.3, "roe_median": 16.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 38.4, "fix_assets": 12.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 15.97, "capex_dep": 9.24, "interest_debt": 6.8, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 35.2, "debt_mv": 2.2, "payout": 43.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 14.6, "np_cagr3": 7.2, "rev_yoy": 39.5, "np_yoy": 41.0, "np_vol": 14.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 71.2, "fwd_pe2": 51.3, "fwd_g1": 29.0, "fwd_g2": 39.0, "peg": 1.83, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["精密光学元件", 21.0], ["非线性光学晶体元器件", 11.0], ["激光器件", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 75.2, "ret_prev2_year": 21.8, "ret_ytd": 14.5, "ret_pivot": 196.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.8, "ret_60": -28.9, "ret_120": 2.8, "ret_250": 49.2, "mdd_250": -59.3, "vol_250": 68.9, "pos_52w": 55.4}, "S": {"duration": 90, "pricing": 71, "hard": 61, "bondness": 26}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 91.5 倍、股息率 0.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 54.7%、固定资产占比 38%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 38%、毛利率 54.7% 两条都占,但所在行业(电子)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.9%(经营现金流/市值 1.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 54.7%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.9 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 9.24 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 91.5 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 49%,最大回撤 -59%,年化波动 69%,现价在 52 周高点的 55%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -29% / 3%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光学光电子」95 家中位:PE 61.6 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 19.3% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 43%。", "福晶科技:PE 比行业中位高 29.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 35.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.0个百分点。"]}}