{"F": {"ts_code": "002221.SZ", "name": "东华能源", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "石油石化", "sw2": "炼化及贸易", "sw3": "其他石化", "ind": "炼化及贸易", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20080306", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.83, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 0.9319, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 918882.5074, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [8.6, 10.1, 4.2, 5.6, 4.3, 3.7], "rev_series": [290.8, 263.7, 292.0, 271.2, 309.4, 275.3], "np_series": [12.1, 11.4, 0.4, 1.5, 4.4, -9.2], "roe_series": [12.4, 10.8, 0.4, 1.4, 4.1, -8.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 236.7, "np_ttm": -7.7, "ocf_ttm": -23.1, "fcf_ttm": -30.3, "fcf_yield": -33.0, "ocf_yield": -25.1, "gm_median": 4.3, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.46, "gm_chg_2022": -4.4, "npm_median": 0.6, "roe_median": 1.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 42.6, "fix_assets": 185.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.93, "capex_dep": 0.8, "interest_debt": 235.6, "debt_ebitda": 13.9, "debt_ratio": 73.1, "debt_mv": 256.4, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -1.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -23.7, "np_yoy": 224.4, "np_vol": 203.3, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 27.1, "fwd_pe2": 11.2, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 142.0, "peg": 0.19, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["聚丙烯", 59.0], ["液化石油气", 26.0], ["丙烯", 9.0], ["氢气等副产气", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -14.6, "ret_prev2_year": -7.9, "ret_ytd": -28.0, "ret_pivot": -29.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.9, "ret_60": -1.7, "ret_120": -38.2, "ret_250": -34.9, "mdd_250": -48.4, "vol_250": 37.8, "pos_52w": 58.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 22, "hard": 68, "bondness": 35}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 43%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 4.3%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.4 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 13.9 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 43%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 4.3%,稳定度 46%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -33.0%(经营现金流/市值 -25.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 4.3%,稳定度 46%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 43%,资本开支/折旧 0.80 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -35%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 38%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / -2% / -38%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「炼化及贸易」30 家中位:PE 24.2 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 10.6% / 固定资产占比 43% / 分红率 49%。", "东华能源:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点。"]}}