{"F": {"ts_code": "002218.SZ", "name": "拓日新能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "光伏发电", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20080228", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.98, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.4322, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 560503.4398, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.3, 33.5, 27.9, 25.0, 23.7, 8.4], "rev_series": [13.6, 14.2, 13.2, 11.3, 13.2, 10.3], "np_series": [1.6, 2.0, 1.0, 0.2, 0.1, -2.0], "roe_series": [5.4, 5.4, 2.3, 0.5, 0.3, -4.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.9, "np_ttm": -2.0, "ocf_ttm": 3.8, "fcf_ttm": 3.9, "fcf_yield": 6.9, "ocf_yield": 6.7, "gm_median": 25.0, "gm_std": 8.4, "gm_stab": 0.66, "gm_chg_2022": -2.3, "npm_median": 2.1, "roe_median": 0.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 50.3, "fix_assets": 31.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 1.43, "capex_dep": -0.03, "interest_debt": 17.8, "debt_ebitda": 8.5, "debt_ratio": 37.7, "debt_mv": 31.7, "payout": 125.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -8.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -6.9, "np_yoy": 3.9, "np_vol": 762.7, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 41.0], ["光伏玻璃", 16.0], ["光伏太阳能玻璃", 16.0], ["电费收入", 16.0]], "ret_prev_year": 9.6, "ret_prev2_year": -11.6, "ret_ytd": -8.3, "ret_pivot": 38.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.9, "ret_60": -6.1, "ret_120": -33.7, "ret_250": 5.3, "mdd_250": -56.9, "vol_250": 61.2, "pos_52w": 50.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 41, "hard": 80, "bondness": 70}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -2.0 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 38%,有息负债 18 亿,经营现金流/市值 6.7%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 50%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 25.0%,稳定度 66%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.9%(经营现金流/市值 6.7%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.0%,稳定度 66%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 50%,资本开支/折旧 -0.03 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 5%,最大回撤 -57%,年化波动 61%,现价在 52 周高点的 50%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -6% / -34%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "拓日新能:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 10.4个百分点。"]}}