{"F": {"ts_code": "002216.SZ", "name": "三全食品", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "食品加工", "sw3": "预加工食品", "ind": "食品加工", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20080220", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.95, "pe_ttm": 17.6147, "pb": 2.4234, "dv_ttm": 4.7888, "total_mv": 1050624.9995, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.9, 27.2, 28.1, 25.8, 24.2, 24.1], "rev_series": [69.3, 69.4, 74.3, 70.6, 66.3, 65.4], "np_series": [7.7, 6.4, 8.0, 7.5, 5.4, 5.4], "roe_series": [29.4, 20.6, 22.5, 18.2, 12.4, 12.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 68.8, "np_ttm": 6.0, "ocf_ttm": 5.7, "fcf_ttm": 3.3, "fcf_yield": 3.1, "ocf_yield": 5.4, "gm_median": 25.8, "gm_std": 1.6, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -1.8, "npm_median": 9.2, "roe_median": 18.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 27.9, "fix_assets": 18.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 2.42, "capex_dep": 1.88, "interest_debt": 4.7, "debt_ebitda": 0.7, "debt_ratio": 35.8, "debt_mv": 4.5, "payout": 58.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -4.2, "np_cagr3": -12.1, "rev_yoy": 9.5, "np_yoy": 16.5, "np_vol": 17.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 72.0, "earn_yield": 5.7, "consensus_n": 13, "fwd_pe": 17.6, "fwd_pe2": 16.3, "fwd_g1": 0.0, "fwd_g2": 7.0, "peg": 2.51, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 32.0], ["速冻面米制品", 26.0], ["速冻面米制品：汤圆、水饺、粽子", 17.0], ["速冻面米制品：创新类面米制品", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": -3.7, "ret_prev2_year": -7.5, "ret_ytd": 11.6, "ret_pivot": 42.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.9, "ret_60": -3.9, "ret_120": 3.0, "ret_250": 6.9, "mdd_250": -18.1, "vol_250": 27.2, "pos_52w": 84.9}, "S": {"duration": 36, "pricing": 52, "hard": 45, "bondness": 71}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 59%、股息率 4.8%、营收 3 年复合 -4.2%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.7 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 28%,毛利率近 5 年中位 25.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.1%(经营现金流/市值 5.4%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.8%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 28%,资本开支/折旧 1.88 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 17.6 倍 粗算,约 72%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 7%,最大回撤 -18%,年化波动 27%,现价在 52 周高点的 85%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / -4% / 3%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「食品加工」27 家中位:PE 29.8 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 23.4% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 62%。", "三全食品:PE 比行业中位低 12.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点。"]}}